{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e48ce064-8ec5-4872-afc6-08377d39f9fc", "symbol": "HMY", "name": "Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.448, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.163, "architecture_energy": 7.123, "architecture_maturity": 64.158, "architecture_confidence": 72.649, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.04, "rotation_up": 30.62, "upward_expansion": 23.2, "deceleration": 39.49, "rotation_down": 21.21, "downward_expansion": 50.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.901333, 16.362727, 16.389732, 16.601732 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.7, "trend_reference": 17.42292, "distance_from_trend": 0.130695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.877454, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.658605, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.634034, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014877, "excess_performance": -0.140502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130695, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.658605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020933, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00634, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066984, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014877, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.361992, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16688167, "relative_activity": 0.792702, "balance": 1.361992, "dry_up": 0.677618, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109039, "annualized_volatility": 0.77852, "from_high_reference": -0.229971, "from_low_reference": 0.602947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.42292, "fair_value_reference": 11.877454, "structural_low": 12.791723, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.025866, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.005684, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.396761, "worst_return": -0.367089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.145597, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.094328, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.897305, "worst_return": -0.252308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.078044, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.083572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.616468, "worst_return": 0.051242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-61.146572, "energy": 49.474253, "activity_lines": [ 15.335333, 15.784727, 16.081798, 16.693548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.87, "volume": 14445153, "typical_volume": 22939829.05, "trend": 17.558712, "fair_value": 11.697742, "relative_strength": -15.194228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.449272, "energy": 37.042686, "activity_lines": [ 15.399333, 15.748364, 16.057416, 16.57283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.75, "volume": 11478196, "typical_volume": 22097514.55, "trend": 17.443308, "fair_value": 11.774877, "relative_strength": -16.652629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.54902, "energy": 30.702786, "activity_lines": [ 15.499333, 15.687273, 16.037614, 16.456139 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.7, "volume": 16688167, "typical_volume": 21052251.5, "trend": 17.42292, "fair_value": 11.877454, "relative_strength": 0.634034, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.162989, "energy": 7.122646, "activity_lines": [ 16.901333, 16.362727, 16.389732, 16.601732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }