{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e48f37b8-1294-464e-88f3-3206568962a0", "symbol": "VPC", "name": "ETFIS SERIES TRUST I VIRTUS PRIVATE CREDIT STRATEGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.582, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.205, "architecture_energy": 9.523, "architecture_maturity": 79.551, "architecture_confidence": 61.082, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.94, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 15.3, "deceleration": 42.27, "rotation_down": 26.65, "downward_expansion": 62.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.08006, 14.985997, 15.101848, 15.180875 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.7351, "trend_reference": 15.461361, "distance_from_trend": 0.017705, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.048731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.110834, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045292, "excess_performance": -0.170917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017705, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043461, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077052, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041124, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.160488, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132468, "relative_activity": 1.2871, "balance": 1.160488, "dry_up": 0.592933, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027392, "annualized_volatility": 0.195319, "from_high_reference": -0.149673, "from_low_reference": 0.09882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.461361, "fair_value_reference": 17.048731, "structural_low": 14.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.006975, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.009223, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.089716, "worst_return": -0.06177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012618, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036833, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.070833, "worst_return": -0.061198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01756, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.10594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.004891, "worst_return": -0.069532, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.676948, "energy": 42.81404, "activity_lines": [ 14.915591, 15.003465, 15.163086, 15.34901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.89, "volume": 52417, "typical_volume": 110801.25, "trend": 15.683746, "fair_value": 17.061263, "relative_strength": -17.309426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.749374, "energy": 39.824586, "activity_lines": [ 14.910182, 14.96049, 15.137162, 15.29355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.5498, "volume": 32261, "typical_volume": 107178.7, "trend": 15.600199, "fair_value": 17.054125, "relative_strength": -18.07988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.939756, "energy": 45.954961, "activity_lines": [ 14.804807, 14.87105, 15.079971, 15.220392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.77, "volume": 26952, "typical_volume": 102277.4, "trend": 15.51742, "fair_value": 17.047992, "relative_strength": -17.102286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.068277, "energy": 42.314409, "activity_lines": [ 14.783413, 14.837572, 15.045543, 15.166831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.7351, "volume": 132468, "typical_volume": 102919.75, "trend": 15.461361, "fair_value": 17.048731, "relative_strength": -14.110834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.204869, "energy": 9.523274, "activity_lines": [ 15.08006, 14.985997, 15.101848, 15.180875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }