{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e48fe79f-6ef2-4525-887a-3987844d56ad", "symbol": "S5EG", "name": "UBS S&P 500 ESG Elite UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.566, "architecture_energy": 54.77, "architecture_maturity": 67.106, "architecture_confidence": 85.347, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.0, "rotation_up": 42.67, "upward_expansion": 70.08, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 22.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 2273.8, 2280.663636, 2230.881904, 2153.91356 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2328.5, "trend_reference": 2067.347738, "distance_from_trend": 0.126322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1672.000464, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.392643, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.403201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.202166, "excess_performance": 0.15093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068696, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.392643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061448, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.094032, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202166, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.578503, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13013, "relative_activity": 0.359118, "balance": 1.578503, "dry_up": 0.84247, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024924, "annualized_volatility": 0.15761, "from_high_reference": -0.002004, "from_low_reference": 0.368844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2067.347738, "fair_value_reference": 1672.000464, "structural_low": 1753.050049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00814, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.003387, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.045293, "worst_return": -0.078171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.068074, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.071115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175558, "worst_return": 0.004867, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.154826, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.155637, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179908, "worst_return": 0.095934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.176501, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.165302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.362588, "worst_return": -0.009586, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.07988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.110715, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.565636, "energy": 54.76999, "activity_lines": [ 2273.8, 2280.663636, 2230.881904, 2153.91356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }