{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e490aedf-223d-471f-ae56-8f8127f0b001", "symbol": "TCON", "name": "TD Conservative ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.073, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.949, "architecture_energy": 42.08, "architecture_maturity": 48.615, "architecture_confidence": 73.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.06, "rotation_up": 40.69, "upward_expansion": 64.94, "deceleration": 87.78, "rotation_down": 26.8, "downward_expansion": 17.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.36995, 17.370616, 17.27135, 17.134578 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.51, "trend_reference": 16.983875, "distance_from_trend": 0.030978, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.045895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163773, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.797808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046553, "excess_performance": -0.073868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030978, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163773, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000334, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.89358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48300, "relative_activity": 1.085149, "balance": 0.89358, "dry_up": 1.10874, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010849, "annualized_volatility": 0.072353, "from_high_reference": -0.004548, "from_low_reference": 0.117793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.983875, "fair_value_reference": 15.045895, "structural_low": 16.208723, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018641, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.002146, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.022115, "worst_return": -0.000748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009999, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008499, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.048538, "worst_return": -0.011831, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035712, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08031, "worst_return": 0.02009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001642, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.060683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018066, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02875, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.06083, "energy": 53.175554, "activity_lines": [ 17.37409, 17.343654, 17.174268, 17.051374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.284918, "volume": 59000, "typical_volume": 50650.0, "trend": 16.931035, "fair_value": 14.986765, "relative_strength": -5.94885, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.311763, "energy": 42.569968, "activity_lines": [ 17.337811, 17.344061, 17.202767, 17.075811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 48500, "typical_volume": 46835.0, "trend": 16.958077, "fair_value": 15.015859, "relative_strength": -5.245251, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.396819, "energy": 34.236548, "activity_lines": [ 17.315221, 17.338787, 17.228518, 17.09897 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.51, "volume": 48300, "typical_volume": 44510.0, "trend": 16.983875, "fair_value": 15.045895, "relative_strength": -6.797808, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.949364, "energy": 42.080032, "activity_lines": [ 17.36995, 17.370616, 17.27135, 17.134578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }