{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e494f344-ffe4-497f-88a2-92088d197c97", "symbol": "TYR", "name": "Tyro Payments Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.271, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.571, "architecture_energy": 22.665, "architecture_maturity": 19.42, "architecture_confidence": 47.108, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.87, "rotation_up": 48.22, "upward_expansion": 45.13, "deceleration": 31.9, "rotation_down": 28.42, "downward_expansion": 19.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.842333, 0.831364, 0.819405, 0.817538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.87, "trend_reference": 0.834333, "distance_from_trend": 0.042749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.951795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.743477, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.043956, "excess_performance": -0.107662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042749, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072104, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166483, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113817, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.167085, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5171189, "relative_activity": 1.280895, "balance": 8.167085, "dry_up": 1.032444, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085323, "annualized_volatility": 0.392745, "from_high_reference": -0.328185, "from_low_reference": 0.308271 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.834333, "fair_value_reference": 0.951795, "structural_low": 0.665, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.040293, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033335, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.326531, "worst_return": -0.381107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.179894, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.216504, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.289753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.137608, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.123098, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.576531, "worst_return": -0.576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018342, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.131718, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.469388, "worst_return": -0.738667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119318, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107345, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.275281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039409, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016949, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.17, "volume": 7681130, "typical_volume": 9699369.6, "trend": 1.389333, "fair_value": 2.335962, "relative_strength": -16.255429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.640724, "energy": 10.286963, "activity_lines": [ 0.816667, 0.820364, 0.8045, 0.820645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.83, "volume": 2938707, "typical_volume": 4855237.3, "trend": 0.853, "fair_value": 0.96109, "relative_strength": -13.169103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.436496, "energy": 14.597299, "activity_lines": [ 0.820333, 0.823636, 0.807405, 0.818785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.805, "volume": 3395633, "typical_volume": 4284161.25, "trend": 0.846, "fair_value": 0.957308, "relative_strength": -15.213205, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.803139, "energy": 13.631267, "activity_lines": [ 0.813667, 0.820636, 0.808143, 0.815688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.845, "volume": 5167070, "typical_volume": 4218453.4, "trend": 0.840333, "fair_value": 0.954231, "relative_strength": -12.804776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.234343, "energy": 6.908403, "activity_lines": [ 0.825667, 0.823818, 0.812762, 0.815624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.87, "volume": 5171189, "typical_volume": 4037167.5, "trend": 0.834333, "fair_value": 0.951795, "relative_strength": -12.743477, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.57131, "energy": 22.665365, "activity_lines": [ 0.842333, 0.831364, 0.819405, 0.817538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }