{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e49d1368-cfce-429b-893d-78a6067afe59", "symbol": "SCO", "name": "Seresco S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.292, "architecture_energy": 64.408, "architecture_maturity": 20.095, "architecture_confidence": 86.981, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.61, "rotation_up": 12.34, "upward_expansion": 12.78, "deceleration": 41.92, "rotation_down": 68.99, "downward_expansion": 86.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.736667, 5.815455, 6.004762, 6.083978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.8, "trend_reference": 6.278333, "distance_from_trend": -0.076188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.143543, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055919, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.746003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.147059, "excess_performance": -0.27149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055919, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147059, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.273363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2050, "relative_activity": 0.396503, "balance": 0.273363, "dry_up": 1.001412, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041114, "annualized_volatility": 0.184117, "from_high_reference": -0.317647, "from_low_reference": 0.074074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.278333, "fair_value_reference": 6.143543, "structural_low": 5.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05303, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.078492, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.073171, "worst_return": -0.07377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.073171, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138012, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.073171, "worst_return": -0.073171, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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5.971818, 6.106429, 6.196237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.65, "volume": 8345, "typical_volume": 5479.35, "trend": 6.33, "fair_value": 6.150775, "relative_strength": -27.051332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.978004, "energy": 78.063336, "activity_lines": [ 5.73, 5.887273, 6.06119, 6.15086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.8, "volume": 5003, "typical_volume": 5567.45, "trend": 6.306667, "fair_value": 6.147121, "relative_strength": -25.021269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.441516, "energy": 73.746549, "activity_lines": [ 5.723333, 5.845455, 6.032381, 6.116667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.8, "volume": 2050, "typical_volume": 5170.2, "trend": 6.278333, "fair_value": 6.143543, "relative_strength": -25.746003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.291866, "energy": 64.407725, "activity_lines": [ 5.736667, 5.815455, 6.004762, 6.083978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }