{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4a42af5-6d32-487b-baa2-e76e9e4542ed", "symbol": "SUBR", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Uber ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.871, "architecture_energy": 14.809, "architecture_maturity": 22.513, "architecture_confidence": 94.576, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.22, "rotation_up": 33.92, "upward_expansion": 21.07, "deceleration": 34.8, "rotation_down": 38.0, "downward_expansion": 35.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 223.816667, 224.5, 225.615476, 226.426344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 213.0, "trend_reference": 225.658333, "distance_from_trend": -0.056095, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 284.475673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.251254, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.874436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.065789, "excess_performance": -0.117025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.251254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057151, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056461, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.241657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 925, "relative_activity": 2.885665, "balance": 0.241657, "dry_up": 2.257838, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047671, "annualized_volatility": 0.302733, "from_high_reference": -0.149718, "from_low_reference": 0.231214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 225.658333, "fair_value_reference": 284.475673, "structural_low": 208.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.055872, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004391, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.185644, "worst_return": -0.278911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.03316, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.037404, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.202911, "worst_return": -0.394553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.155333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.112482, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.60814, "worst_return": -0.425953, 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049261, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.349193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-06", 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227.541667, 226.475269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 216.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 186.65, "trend": 223.443333, "fair_value": 291.462372, "relative_strength": -3.241497, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.772986, "energy": 24.121851, "activity_lines": [ 221.883333, 225.686364, 226.405952, 226.035376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 224.75, "volume": 38, "typical_volume": 188.4, "trend": 223.626667, "fair_value": 289.772788, "relative_strength": -0.352794, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.675192, "energy": 26.256947, "activity_lines": [ 221.383333, 225.463636, 226.135714, 226.119677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 233.5, "volume": 130, "typical_volume": 184.85, "trend": 224.376667, "fair_value": 288.194904, "relative_strength": 2.205491, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.113341, "energy": 15.650884, "activity_lines": [ 224.95, 226.654545, 226.697619, 226.756667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 231.5, "volume": 1802, "typical_volume": 274.3, "trend": 225.243333, "fair_value": 286.491378, "relative_strength": 0.253455, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.414734, "energy": 14.755512, "activity_lines": [ 227.833333, 227.309091, 227.032143, 227.216237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 213.0, "volume": 925, "typical_volume": 320.55, "trend": 225.658333, "fair_value": 284.475673, "relative_strength": -7.874436, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.870608, "energy": 14.808532, "activity_lines": [ 223.816667, 224.5, 225.615476, 226.426344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }