{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4a4ce5b-599a-47bd-975f-a2e1bd3e22c7", "symbol": "NXQ", "name": "Nexteq plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.475, "architecture_energy": 68.448, "architecture_maturity": 58.026, "architecture_confidence": 91.504, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.54, "rotation_up": 17.52, "upward_expansion": 13.6, "deceleration": 44.28, "rotation_down": 71.49, "downward_expansion": 91.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.484667, 0.504273, 0.538799, 0.575347 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.48, "trend_reference": 0.619612, "distance_from_trend": -0.225321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.803161, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.402362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.649177, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.317106, "excess_performance": -0.368341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114755, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.402362, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317106, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.105423, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 455871, "relative_activity": 1.317134, "balance": 0.105423, "dry_up": 0.674609, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098365, "annualized_volatility": 0.37288, "from_high_reference": -0.439696, "from_low_reference": 0.043478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.619612, "fair_value_reference": 0.803161, "structural_low": 0.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.055557, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.045137, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.289473, "worst_return": -0.220211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.078838, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.081302, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.378379, "worst_return": -0.295674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001507, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.043986, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.13964, "worst_return": -0.2997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.19863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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546931.3, "trend": 0.630509, "fair_value": 0.812038, "relative_strength": -36.998639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.328505, "energy": 66.521158, "activity_lines": [ 0.505, 0.519818, 0.560276, 0.59442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.48, "volume": 144936, "typical_volume": 538759.25, "trend": 0.625123, "fair_value": 0.8076, "relative_strength": -35.977317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.572763, "energy": 73.994641, "activity_lines": [ 0.492333, 0.511727, 0.548985, 0.584709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.48, "volume": 455871, "typical_volume": 346108.25, "trend": 0.619612, "fair_value": 0.803161, "relative_strength": -35.649177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.474947, "energy": 68.447832, "activity_lines": [ 0.484667, 0.504273, 0.538799, 0.575347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }