{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4a63454-940f-4405-a0c5-c5f804410d7d", "symbol": "OGI", "name": "Organigram Global Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.383, "architecture_energy": 65.24, "architecture_maturity": 74.057, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 25.51, "upward_expansion": 13.09, "deceleration": 45.47, "rotation_down": 56.71, "downward_expansion": 86.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.328, 1.358364, 1.472262, 1.583946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.37, "trend_reference": 1.736167, "distance_from_trend": -0.210905, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.089712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.344407, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.936454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.347619, "excess_performance": -0.46804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210905, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15604, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.344407, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.399365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18413, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452979, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 387500, "relative_activity": 0.521327, "balance": 0.452979, "dry_up": 1.577772, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09461, "annualized_volatility": 0.534916, "from_high_reference": -0.556634, "from_low_reference": 0.146444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.736167, "fair_value_reference": 2.089712, "structural_low": 1.195, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.048148, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.053061, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.263514, "worst_return": -0.358333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.131251, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.12945, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.540881, "worst_return": -0.434426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.140845, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.190389, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.303191, "worst_return": -0.614754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.338721, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.425647, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.090426, "worst_return": -0.669014, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12987, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.206642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223176, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074627, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126437, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.297436, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.05, "volume": 851200, "typical_volume": 598542.5, "trend": 2.898333, "fair_value": 7.824551, "relative_strength": -46.728594, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"energy": 78.144618, "activity_lines": [ 1.338, 1.387636, 1.529262, 1.641774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.31, "volume": 686400, "typical_volume": 775005.0, "trend": 1.7705, "fair_value": 2.092468, "relative_strength": -41.290073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.944235, "energy": 77.782265, "activity_lines": [ 1.318, 1.365273, 1.496381, 1.609785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.37, "volume": 387500, "typical_volume": 743295.0, "trend": 1.736167, "fair_value": 2.089712, "relative_strength": -39.936454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.382658, "energy": 65.2399, "activity_lines": [ 1.328, 1.358364, 1.472262, 1.583946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }