{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4b37a4e-2bcb-4b19-81fb-b048931444ff", "symbol": "FRBA", "name": "First Bank", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.163, "architecture_energy": 74.689, "architecture_maturity": 16.385, "architecture_confidence": 75.977, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.02, "rotation_up": 75.59, "upward_expansion": 91.77, "deceleration": 43.08, "rotation_down": 10.9, "downward_expansion": 16.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.221308, 17.812253, 17.044923, 16.727343 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.63, "trend_reference": 16.489472, "distance_from_trend": 0.129812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.287707, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303918, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.019259, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095293, "excess_performance": -0.092161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129812, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026597, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303918, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201502, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.199023, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095293, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.688929, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 569757, "relative_activity": 1.373598, "balance": 5.688929, "dry_up": 1.193289, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05472, "annualized_volatility": 0.243449, "from_high_reference": -0.019382, "from_low_reference": 0.300969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.489472, "fair_value_reference": 14.287707, "structural_low": 14.320098, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.026998, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.158233, "worst_return": -0.127168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039893, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.071227, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.109334, "worst_return": -0.125062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004016, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094423, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.056839, "worst_return": -0.140934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.538382, "energy": 54.862078, "activity_lines": [ 17.118413, 16.508081, 16.190992, 16.191106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.177019, "volume": 399462, "typical_volume": 396466.35, "trend": 16.284283, "fair_value": 14.121845, "relative_strength": -8.225509, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.353201, "energy": 57.172983, "activity_lines": [ 17.228404, 16.717406, 16.299987, 16.248956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.774135, "volume": 364622, "typical_volume": 398230.95, "trend": 16.290664, "fair_value": 14.163715, "relative_strength": -0.787125, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.48957, "energy": 69.881787, "activity_lines": [ 17.457631, 16.992663, 16.463962, 16.345076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.893558, "volume": 402774, "typical_volume": 398822.0, "trend": 16.333329, "fair_value": 14.200704, "relative_strength": 1.511807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.223234, "energy": 63.273891, "activity_lines": [ 17.645058, 17.242466, 16.630035, 16.448488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.440913, "volume": 642712, "typical_volume": 413608.95, "trend": 16.415337, "fair_value": 14.241991, "relative_strength": 3.985325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.223673, "energy": 71.090675, "activity_lines": [ 17.933365, 17.536996, 16.836641, 16.584461 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.63, "volume": 569757, "typical_volume": 414791.6, "trend": 16.489472, "fair_value": 14.287707, "relative_strength": -0.019259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.163386, "energy": 74.688601, "activity_lines": [ 18.221308, 17.812253, 17.044923, 16.727343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }