{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4baaad1-aa5c-447e-8daf-3c743f2517b4", "symbol": "300465", "name": "Global Infotech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.542, "architecture_energy": 43.386, "architecture_maturity": 94.75, "architecture_confidence": 79.62, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.27, "rotation_up": 24.49, "upward_expansion": 6.0, "deceleration": 60.72, "rotation_down": 47.92, "downward_expansion": 77.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.807333, 11.915091, 12.886714, 13.775828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.58, "trend_reference": 15.281667, "distance_from_trend": -0.176791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.80609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088808, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.970968, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.338243, "excess_performance": -0.345643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159748, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088808, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.494978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150694901, "relative_activity": 2.193569, "balance": 1.494978, "dry_up": 1.773605, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142228, "annualized_volatility": 0.61905, "from_high_reference": -0.563194, "from_low_reference": 0.303627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.281667, "fair_value_reference": 13.80609, "structural_low": 9.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.012458, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.02027, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.205421, "worst_return": -0.251068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030805, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.001113, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.181818, "worst_return": -0.248932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.343564, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.276818, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.412121, "worst_return": -0.294872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.91114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.98, "volume": 59026583, "typical_volume": 55282830.15, "trend": 16.061333, "fair_value": 13.758269, "relative_strength": -45.804298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.258767, "energy": 90.917313, "activity_lines": [ 10.93, 12.368364, 13.430333, 14.493549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.11, "volume": 136390063, "typical_volume": 58833809.65, "trend": 15.77, "fair_value": 13.767308, "relative_strength": -39.395149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.574149, "energy": 83.642594, "activity_lines": [ 10.737333, 11.988182, 13.130476, 14.174108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.55, "volume": 141264317, "typical_volume": 63565035.0, "trend": 15.533333, "fair_value": 13.785192, "relative_strength": -30.051854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.941044, "energy": 54.769653, "activity_lines": [ 11.312, 11.934909, 12.997476, 13.966366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.58, "volume": 150694901, "typical_volume": 68698487.05, "trend": 15.281667, "fair_value": 13.80609, "relative_strength": -32.970968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.541621, "energy": 43.385908, "activity_lines": [ 11.807333, 11.915091, 12.886714, 13.775828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }