{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4c56f1e-905f-4423-a911-ffba640447de", "symbol": "VRL", "name": "Verity Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.391, "architecture_energy": 91.526, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 12.8, "upward_expansion": 21.34, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 79.51, "downward_expansion": 97.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011933, 0.013018, 0.014767, 0.016577 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.019122, "distance_from_trend": -0.424752, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.044053, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.750303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.486682, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.541667, "excess_performance": -0.605372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.424752, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072737, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.750303, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.474867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323608, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.541667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.041929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 809251, "relative_activity": 0.300488, "balance": 0.041929, "dry_up": 0.516215, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136364, "annualized_volatility": 0.547674, "from_high_reference": -0.685714, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.019122, "fair_value_reference": 0.044053, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.261905, "directional_follow_through": 0.452381, "median_excess_return": -0.034759, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.785714, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.067276, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.237447, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.21628, "energy": 77.740674, "activity_lines": [ 0.014733, 0.015327, 0.016995, 0.018596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2632210, "typical_volume": 3689174.75, "trend": 0.019956, "fair_value": 0.046393, "relative_strength": -36.927055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.755886, "energy": 83.083506, "activity_lines": [ 0.014067, 0.014782, 0.016448, 0.018136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 627800, "typical_volume": 3545697.3, "trend": 0.019722, "fair_value": 0.045579, "relative_strength": -36.015022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.356504, "energy": 78.071979, "activity_lines": [ 0.0136, 0.014345, 0.015957, 0.017687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 1491652, "typical_volume": 3089457.4, "trend": 0.019489, "fair_value": 0.044752, "relative_strength": -46.508439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.564958, "energy": 90.235263, "activity_lines": [ 0.012667, 0.013636, 0.015338, 0.017125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 809251, "typical_volume": 2693119.55, "trend": 0.019122, "fair_value": 0.044053, "relative_strength": -47.486682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.391383, "energy": 91.526057, "activity_lines": [ 0.011933, 0.013018, 0.014767, 0.016577 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }