{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4d0d526-cf46-4a7e-a142-6ede41e69794", "symbol": "BNGO", "name": "Bionano Genomics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.075, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.003, "architecture_energy": 36.571, "architecture_maturity": 26.408, "architecture_confidence": 95.388, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.26, "rotation_up": 18.96, "upward_expansion": 7.81, "deceleration": 41.39, "rotation_down": 50.86, "downward_expansion": 76.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.137818, 1.162429, 1.169011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.16, "trend_reference": 1.196, "distance_from_trend": -0.0301, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.189433, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.965049, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.314531, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008696, "excess_performance": -0.178758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0301, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.965049, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014838, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.383145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137121, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 629430, "relative_activity": 0.530169, "balance": 0.623726, "dry_up": 0.430653, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084741, "annualized_volatility": 0.389494, "from_high_reference": -0.789091, "from_low_reference": 0.16 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.196, "fair_value_reference": 33.189433, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072174, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.098008, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.008772, "worst_return": -0.518797, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.407992, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.452287, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.237037, "worst_return": -0.578947, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.658168, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.707381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.597037, "worst_return": -0.719298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-09-23", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.182796, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.239726, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.996566, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027569, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072626, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.2, "volume": 603164, "typical_volume": 1198067.15, "trend": 1.256, "fair_value": 41.098343, "relative_strength": -43.177095, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.783779, "energy": 24.677273, "activity_lines": [ 1.164, 1.173273, 1.183667, 1.197677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.15, "volume": 338388, "typical_volume": 1187190.7, "trend": 1.241, "fair_value": 38.81033, "relative_strength": -41.448185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.462014, "energy": 24.264512, "activity_lines": [ 1.161333, 1.166364, 1.180905, 1.190839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.11, "volume": 398994, "typical_volume": 1178127.85, "trend": 1.227333, "fair_value": 36.575138, "relative_strength": -40.807861, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.673925, "energy": 27.832915, "activity_lines": [ 1.146, 1.154727, 1.174333, 1.182387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.07, "volume": 678315, "typical_volume": 1188600.25, "trend": 1.21, "fair_value": 34.716612, "relative_strength": -41.702216, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.245336, "energy": 35.969317, "activity_lines": [ 1.119333, 1.136545, 1.164, 1.172237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.16, "volume": 629430, "typical_volume": 1187225.2, "trend": 1.196, "fair_value": 33.189433, "relative_strength": -38.314531, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.003052, "energy": 36.571046, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.137818, 1.162429, 1.169011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }