{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4dab047-0f4f-417f-bfe3-95bc082c62f8", "symbol": "FSK", "name": "FS KKR Capital Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 58.688, "architecture_energy": 65.079, "architecture_maturity": 14.075, "architecture_confidence": 57.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.33, "rotation_up": 68.13, "upward_expansion": 58.03, "deceleration": 26.8, "rotation_down": 17.05, "downward_expansion": 21.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.268667, 10.944809, 10.715624, 10.624744 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.44, "trend_reference": 10.808618, "distance_from_trend": 0.150933, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.124302, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119249, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.855151, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054956, "excess_performance": -0.070669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.150933, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084192, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150156, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.247094, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054956, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.716712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20783913, "relative_activity": 1.358542, "balance": 1.716712, "dry_up": 0.885143, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049796, "annualized_volatility": 0.468121, "from_high_reference": -0.188958, "from_low_reference": 0.351269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.808618, "fair_value_reference": 14.124302, "structural_low": 9.206164, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046366, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024073, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.003, "worst_return": -0.178604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.09397, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030893, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006341, "worst_return": -0.321472, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.063846, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027634, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111304, "worst_return": -0.270152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056756, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 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10423678, "typical_volume": 16080571.4, "trend": 10.943284, "fair_value": 14.14015, "relative_strength": -20.375479, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.818651, "energy": 12.920628, "activity_lines": [ 10.702, 10.588962, 10.496442, 10.545554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.57, "volume": 11580781, "typical_volume": 15499993.05, "trend": 10.839282, "fair_value": 14.126131, "relative_strength": -20.50991, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.888064, "energy": 12.747008, "activity_lines": [ 10.679333, 10.598845, 10.520123, 10.521471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.44, "volume": 20783913, "typical_volume": 15298691.1, "trend": 10.808618, "fair_value": 14.124302, "relative_strength": -8.855151, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.687833, "energy": 65.078769, "activity_lines": [ 11.268667, 10.944809, 10.715624, 10.624744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }