{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4dd5074-0d8f-4acc-acbe-1394ed1fcd57", "symbol": "CWEB", "name": "DIREXION DAILY CSI CHINA INTERNET INDEX BULL 2X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.505, "architecture_energy": 21.277, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.778, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.46, "rotation_up": 39.8, "upward_expansion": 23.62, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 19.22, "downward_expansion": 55.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.043333, 22.607602, 23.122485, 24.710615 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.53, "trend_reference": 28.049523, "distance_from_trend": -0.089824, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.941687, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.247828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.48211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.355574, "excess_performance": -0.481199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200366, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.247828, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.355574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.721356, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2080041, "relative_activity": 0.695021, "balance": 0.721356, "dry_up": 0.88304, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113764, "annualized_volatility": 0.565512, "from_high_reference": -0.567838, "from_low_reference": 0.493856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.049523, "fair_value_reference": 33.941687, "structural_low": 17.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.057946, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.060678, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.803621, "worst_return": -0.417642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.125624, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.229063, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.598649, "worst_return": -0.493837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.04636, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.127069, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.923849, "worst_return": -0.668663, 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"close": 21.57, "volume": 1918960, "typical_volume": 2958527.15, "trend": 29.261663, "fair_value": 34.107481, "relative_strength": -45.91381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.847339, "energy": 39.508315, "activity_lines": [ 21.416667, 21.209161, 22.907212, 25.166735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.32, "volume": 3697286, "typical_volume": 3020591.95, "trend": 28.658207, "fair_value": 34.008456, "relative_strength": -36.560775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.295637, "energy": 22.269395, "activity_lines": [ 22.934667, 21.908247, 22.993092, 24.912434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.53, "volume": 2080041, "typical_volume": 2992773.1, "trend": 28.049523, "fair_value": 33.941687, "relative_strength": -37.48211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.504626, "energy": 21.276931, "activity_lines": [ 24.043333, 22.607602, 23.122485, 24.710615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }