{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4dead63-f948-4874-9f22-2a14244cb063", "symbol": "RAMASTEEL", "name": "Rama Steel Tubes Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.488, "architecture_energy": 63.285, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.223, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 21.49, "upward_expansion": 11.05, "deceleration": 56.93, "rotation_down": 65.09, "downward_expansion": 86.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.441333, 4.544909, 4.852667, 5.126731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.82, "trend_reference": 5.722667, "distance_from_trend": -0.157735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.668718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.548212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.167859, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.381258, "excess_performance": -0.337549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231719, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.548212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058366, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.351679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002902, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.381258, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.372632, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15376583, "relative_activity": 0.409408, "balance": 0.372632, "dry_up": 0.278806, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07022, "annualized_volatility": 0.654714, "from_high_reference": -0.583765, "from_low_reference": 0.405248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.722667, "fair_value_reference": 10.668718, "structural_low": 3.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.057265, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.069902, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.436837, "worst_return": -0.34858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.13481, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.152338, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.411966, "worst_return": -0.345856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.102075, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.147035, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.170085, "worst_return": -0.404427, "sufficient": false }, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087137, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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4.33, "volume": 10142515, "typical_volume": 44375659.35, "trend": 6.203, "fair_value": 10.840235, "relative_strength": -43.99021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.662833, "energy": 93.357749, "activity_lines": [ 4.558667, 4.797091, 5.053857, 5.44129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.26, "volume": 7043004, "typical_volume": 42654972.75, "trend": 6.030333, "fair_value": 10.784209, "relative_strength": -42.635171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.632002, "energy": 92.761724, "activity_lines": [ 4.432, 4.668727, 4.964143, 5.315935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.13, "volume": 9323553, "typical_volume": 40521220.7, "trend": 5.852333, "fair_value": 10.723077, "relative_strength": -44.87126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.097871, "energy": 92.951829, "activity_lines": [ 4.304667, 4.534182, 4.871952, 5.193333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.82, "volume": 15376583, "typical_volume": 37558066.9, "trend": 5.722667, "fair_value": 10.668718, "relative_strength": -35.167859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.487993, "energy": 63.284675, "activity_lines": [ 4.441333, 4.544909, 4.852667, 5.126731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }