{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4e1647c-6137-4053-93a6-930144954ba6", "symbol": "U11", "name": "United Overseas Bank Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.236, "architecture_energy": 67.605, "architecture_maturity": 38.341, "architecture_confidence": 65.527, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 79.81, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 56.37, "rotation_down": 11.51, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.292, 42.304546, 40.415447, 39.353865 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 43.299999, "trend_reference": 38.302939, "distance_from_trend": 0.130462, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.644232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368338, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.042183, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.14674, "excess_performance": -0.008095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130462, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068333, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368338, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14674, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.552697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17763500, "relative_activity": 1.507104, "balance": 1.552697, "dry_up": 1.503064, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033043, "annualized_volatility": 0.187438, "from_high_reference": -0.040975, "from_low_reference": 0.327804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.302939, "fair_value_reference": 31.644232, "structural_low": 34.473674, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.000655, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.008052, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.121622, "worst_return": -0.076074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007269, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134469, "worst_return": -0.044322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.093208, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.017421, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202181, "worst_return": -0.093708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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39.482765, 38.649353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.400002, "volume": 15204732, "typical_volume": 11695109.3, "trend": 38.03717, "fair_value": 31.528025, "relative_strength": 1.328422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.764402, "energy": 87.723463, "activity_lines": [ 43.112668, 41.83491, 39.972763, 39.014327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.299999, "volume": 17763500, "typical_volume": 11786515.9, "trend": 38.302939, "fair_value": 31.644232, "relative_strength": -0.042183, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.236379, "energy": 67.605153, "activity_lines": [ 43.292, 42.304546, 40.415447, 39.353865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }