{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4e19a6c-1f9b-4103-a0a7-21f992161acd", "symbol": "3631", "name": "Chernan Metal Industrial Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.653, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.262, "architecture_energy": 16.364, "architecture_maturity": 35.919, "architecture_confidence": 73.244, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.32, "rotation_up": 31.29, "upward_expansion": 52.99, "deceleration": 81.64, "rotation_down": 31.39, "downward_expansion": 25.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.28, 33.155454, 33.988571, 33.284946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.299999, "trend_reference": 31.971666, "distance_from_trend": 0.13538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.213462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09293, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.234895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.310469, "excess_performance": -0.130903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09293, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04701, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.310469, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 740082, "relative_activity": 0.893166, "balance": 0.43606, "dry_up": 0.363978, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075546, "annualized_volatility": 0.528742, "from_high_reference": -0.151869, "from_low_reference": 0.930851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.971666, "fair_value_reference": 33.213462, "structural_low": 26.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.033083, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.040955, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.375224, "worst_return": -0.113527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.163112, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.030973, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.391936, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06461, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.110593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.259677, "worst_return": -0.149333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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33.187179, "relative_strength": -12.335564, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.934789, "energy": 13.778671, "activity_lines": [ 32.92, 33.484545, 34.082619, 32.946559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.6, "volume": 172080, "typical_volume": 887067.45, "trend": 31.281667, "fair_value": 33.187179, "relative_strength": -14.280474, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.826531, "energy": 15.108895, "activity_lines": [ 32.413333, 33.007273, 33.930952, 32.982795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.200001, "volume": 141081, "typical_volume": 824520.2, "trend": 31.535, "fair_value": 33.184615, "relative_strength": -16.918736, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.833534, "energy": 26.445534, "activity_lines": [ 31.903334, 32.57, 33.718571, 32.977527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 36.299999, "volume": 740082, "typical_volume": 828605.4, "trend": 31.971666, "fair_value": 33.213462, "relative_strength": -6.234895, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.261938, "energy": 16.364315, "activity_lines": [ 33.28, 33.155454, 33.988571, 33.284946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }