{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4e42e00-6616-4fdb-8c38-e9b7b2b0f0e0", "symbol": "GVPTECH", "name": "GVP Infotech Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.271, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.256, "architecture_energy": 2.517, "architecture_maturity": 16.756, "architecture_confidence": 67.699, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.59, "rotation_up": 21.51, "upward_expansion": 34.76, "deceleration": 42.86, "rotation_down": 32.69, "downward_expansion": 42.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.888667, 6.883818, 6.821524, 6.804366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.94, "trend_reference": 6.932333, "distance_from_trend": 0.001106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.457188, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.336342, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.548402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.138958, "excess_performance": -0.095249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001106, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099073, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.336342, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047083, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125484, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061942, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138958, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.706908, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 205318, "relative_activity": 0.741275, "balance": 0.706908, "dry_up": 0.883578, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087231, "annualized_volatility": 0.500605, "from_high_reference": -0.390694, "from_low_reference": 0.329502 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.932333, "fair_value_reference": 10.457188, "structural_low": 5.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.015086, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.020438, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.130232, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.053719, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.017445, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.93019, "worst_return": -0.18797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.119279, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.149768, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.146281, "worst_return": -0.260146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.277407, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.263067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.130069, "worst_return": -0.530744, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11157, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160156, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128223, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.18797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04512, 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.90299, "energy": 14.073456, "activity_lines": [ 6.952, 6.805636, 6.764952, 6.867161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.7, "volume": 238241, "typical_volume": 369849.5, "trend": 7.124, "fair_value": 10.582242, "relative_strength": -16.746435, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.430068, "energy": 13.168567, "activity_lines": [ 6.901333, 6.797091, 6.765333, 6.83271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.75, "volume": 191758, "typical_volume": 359304.05, "trend": 7.047333, "fair_value": 10.541121, "relative_strength": -13.45277, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.898523, "energy": 9.095386, "activity_lines": [ 6.840667, 6.802545, 6.77181, 6.808581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.03, "volume": 343615, "typical_volume": 363254.35, "trend": 6.988, "fair_value": 10.503364, "relative_strength": -11.369092, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.862558, "energy": 4.35459, "activity_lines": [ 6.879333, 6.858364, 6.803857, 6.807462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.94, "volume": 205318, "typical_volume": 276979.5, "trend": 6.932333, "fair_value": 10.457188, "relative_strength": -12.548402, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.256242, "energy": 2.516908, "activity_lines": [ 6.888667, 6.883818, 6.821524, 6.804366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }