{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4e539e9-9a54-4f74-b291-7137190b8085", "symbol": "GAIA", "name": "Gaia Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.39, "architecture_energy": 80.317, "architecture_maturity": 88.125, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 19.1, "upward_expansion": 19.46, "deceleration": 38.22, "rotation_down": 70.3, "downward_expansion": 97.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.917333, 2.017636, 2.230571, 2.428323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.91, "trend_reference": 2.725, "distance_from_trend": -0.299083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.922788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.513101, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.007491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.408669, "excess_performance": -0.596122, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.299083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.513101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162774, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.550075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.408669, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145070, "relative_activity": 0.25067, "balance": 0.334672, "dry_up": 0.540684, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128957, "annualized_volatility": 0.519009, "from_high_reference": -0.701095, "from_low_reference": 0.052342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.725, "fair_value_reference": 3.922788, "structural_low": 1.815, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.047386, "positive_rate": 0.264706, "directional_follow_through": 0.735294, "median_excess_return": -0.067517, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.573013, "worst_return": -0.252308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.184615, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.117946, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.412776, "worst_return": -0.367704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.225062, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.177903, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.496333, "worst_return": -0.486572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080685, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064815, "active": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.14, "volume": 497232, "typical_volume": 602558.05, "trend": 2.958667, "fair_value": 3.934199, "relative_strength": -52.551861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.533099, "energy": 62.649513, "activity_lines": [ 2.168, 2.26, 2.479286, 2.674688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.03, "volume": 265838, "typical_volume": 598079.0, "trend": 2.900333, "fair_value": 3.933301, "relative_strength": -52.39265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.224416, "energy": 69.523141, "activity_lines": [ 2.099333, 2.205636, 2.418429, 2.614774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.87, "volume": 683090, "typical_volume": 612216.5, "trend": 2.837333, "fair_value": 3.931186, "relative_strength": -54.798534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.30182, "energy": 70.592168, "activity_lines": [ 2.008667, 2.131818, 2.34881, 2.548301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.85, "volume": 157641, "typical_volume": 599846.3, "trend": 2.782333, "fair_value": 3.927596, "relative_strength": -54.877211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.986852, "energy": 70.683577, "activity_lines": [ 1.945333, 2.063455, 2.28381, 2.484602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.91, "volume": 145070, "typical_volume": 578729.4, "trend": 2.725, "fair_value": 3.922788, "relative_strength": -55.007491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.390453, "energy": 80.317078, "activity_lines": [ 1.917333, 2.017636, 2.230571, 2.428323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }