{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4e94854-3bbf-422e-b423-39870caff200", "symbol": "AEEM", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.296, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.131, "architecture_energy": 23.969, "architecture_maturity": 65.317, "architecture_confidence": 87.037, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.56, "rotation_up": 18.2, "upward_expansion": 52.28, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 35.6, "downward_expansion": 18.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.448533, 7.569165, 7.546921, 7.370424 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.526, "trend_reference": 7.140633, "distance_from_trend": 0.053968, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.483714, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372427, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.069921, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129759, "excess_performance": 0.076447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053968, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372427, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060699, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129759, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1441007, "relative_activity": 0.879554, "balance": 0.641202, "dry_up": 1.181362, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043959, "annualized_volatility": 0.227011, "from_high_reference": -0.073267, "from_low_reference": 0.370257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.140633, "fair_value_reference": 5.483714, "structural_low": 6.2294, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014412, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00977, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132243, "worst_return": -0.01758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058377, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.069468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23606, "worst_return": -0.005531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064916, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031554, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.335228, "worst_return": -0.000179, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.087506, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132642, "worst_return": 0.04237, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045587, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102034, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067555, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098458, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": 9.701258, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.597455, "energy": 23.088168, "activity_lines": [ 7.5396, 7.651664, 7.520632, 7.324196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.364, "volume": 2130071, "typical_volume": 1621070.85, "trend": 7.10491, "fair_value": 5.463638, "relative_strength": 6.679464, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.895654, "energy": 24.066173, "activity_lines": [ 7.452067, 7.594265, 7.527977, 7.343257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.526, "volume": 1441007, "typical_volume": 1638337.95, "trend": 7.140633, "fair_value": 5.483714, "relative_strength": 6.069921, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.131391, "energy": 23.968998, "activity_lines": [ 7.448533, 7.569165, 7.546921, 7.370424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }