{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4e96440-38e8-41bc-962d-52c70dbbcdb7", "symbol": "INA", "name": "Ingenia Communities Group", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.92, "architecture_energy": 28.218, "architecture_maturity": 27.699, "architecture_confidence": 37.958, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.91, "rotation_up": 49.08, "upward_expansion": 47.09, "deceleration": 47.92, "rotation_down": 24.52, "downward_expansion": 10.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.36, 4.331636, 4.188952, 4.168329 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.48, "trend_reference": 4.230203, "distance_from_trend": 0.059051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.74551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05595, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.867412, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007229, "excess_performance": -0.070935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059051, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066144, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115096, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007229, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.273465, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3450916, "relative_activity": 0.894757, "balance": 0.273465, "dry_up": 1.170553, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057005, "annualized_volatility": 0.25194, "from_high_reference": -0.26909, "from_low_reference": 0.230769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.230203, "fair_value_reference": 4.74551, "structural_low": 3.64, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006476, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019706, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.094382, "worst_return": -0.082418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099772, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.08033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002301, "worst_return": -0.136642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039837, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.075962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005251, "worst_return": -0.219004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-9.644561, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.45848, "energy": 40.176841, "activity_lines": [ 4.349333, 4.178182, 4.087571, 4.158313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.29, "volume": 8600968, "typical_volume": 4256175.6, "trend": 4.311119, "fair_value": 4.736846, "relative_strength": -10.270971, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.02628, "energy": 46.700311, "activity_lines": [ 4.345333, 4.219273, 4.107714, 4.154811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.2, "volume": 3272742, "typical_volume": 4123801.15, "trend": 4.277608, "fair_value": 4.739414, "relative_strength": -11.545272, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.588303, "energy": 37.423835, "activity_lines": [ 4.3, 4.237091, 4.120571, 4.147642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.37, "volume": 2733816, "typical_volume": 3979490.25, "trend": 4.251742, "fair_value": 4.74253, "relative_strength": -9.702485, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.763365, "energy": 21.71174, "activity_lines": [ 4.311333, 4.279273, 4.15, 4.153603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.48, "volume": 3450916, "typical_volume": 3856819.4, "trend": 4.230203, "fair_value": 4.74551, "relative_strength": -9.867412, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.919533, "energy": 28.217708, "activity_lines": [ 4.36, 4.331636, 4.188952, 4.168329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }