{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4ec4b74-51c7-4725-9760-2d2802e38f95", "symbol": "FCT", "name": "Fincantieri S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.12, "architecture_energy": 25.669, "architecture_maturity": 21.84, "architecture_confidence": 48.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.15, "rotation_up": 48.25, "upward_expansion": 37.12, "deceleration": 43.29, "rotation_down": 14.08, "downward_expansion": 43.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.906, 12.233073, 11.966733, 12.308396 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.88, "trend_reference": 13.186867, "distance_from_trend": -0.023271, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.905615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300273, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.032442, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174888, "excess_performance": -0.34578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136731, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300273, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073286, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174888, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.3624, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15251001, "relative_activity": 1.267105, "balance": 2.3624, "dry_up": 1.385805, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086037, "annualized_volatility": 0.428997, "from_high_reference": -0.529584, "from_low_reference": 0.339156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.186867, "fair_value_reference": 9.905615, "structural_low": 9.618, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.037563, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016549, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.231055, "worst_return": -0.08211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.097178, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.053329, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.473536, "worst_return": -0.112688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085258, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344184, "worst_return": -0.210017, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15935, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.259939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.569188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", 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"fair_value": 9.786913, "relative_strength": -31.243607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.743956, "energy": 18.640986, "activity_lines": [ 12.045067, 11.6522, 11.750314, 12.343368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.53, "volume": 19523022, "typical_volume": 11826367.85, "trend": 13.4072, "fair_value": 9.848049, "relative_strength": -27.137359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.023972, "energy": 27.264043, "activity_lines": [ 12.703667, 12.019182, 11.890095, 12.342409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.88, "volume": 15251001, "typical_volume": 12036100.6, "trend": 13.186867, "fair_value": 9.905615, "relative_strength": -32.032442, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.119675, "energy": 25.669349, "activity_lines": [ 12.906, 12.233073, 11.966733, 12.308396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }