{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4f019dd-89ee-4714-8e3f-44211e5f3f0e", "symbol": "PHSC", "name": "PHSC plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.069, "architecture_energy": 18.003, "architecture_maturity": 58.435, "architecture_confidence": 59.772, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.88, "rotation_up": 22.72, "upward_expansion": 1.41, "deceleration": 52.93, "rotation_down": 30.36, "downward_expansion": 54.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0775, 0.0775, 0.078107, 0.079446 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0775, "trend_reference": 0.08325, "distance_from_trend": -0.069069, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.170242, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.544767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.029632, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.261905, "excess_performance": -0.31314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069069, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072423, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.544767, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094822, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261905, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.107325, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.151221, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097022, "annualized_volatility": 0.396887, "from_high_reference": -0.396887, "from_low_reference": 0.107143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.08325, "fair_value_reference": 0.170242, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.30303, "directional_follow_through": 0.393939, "median_excess_return": -0.017708, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.551724, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.068967, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.054505, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.666669, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.21543, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.297731, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.551724, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139535, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189192, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136368, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.185598, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": 38333.55, "trend": 0.086833, "fair_value": 0.171983, "relative_strength": -25.42297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.869192, "energy": 25.011395, "activity_lines": [ 0.0775, 0.077955, 0.07894, 0.082059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 17213, "typical_volume": 21128.7, "trend": 0.08625, "fair_value": 0.171709, "relative_strength": -22.870774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.302827, "energy": 23.902254, "activity_lines": [ 0.0775, 0.077773, 0.07875, 0.081457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18878.2, "trend": 0.085667, "fair_value": 0.171464, "relative_strength": -22.683663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.403001, "energy": 23.897068, "activity_lines": [ 0.0775, 0.077636, 0.078571, 0.080892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 8808, "typical_volume": 19318.6, "trend": 0.085083, "fair_value": 0.171133, "relative_strength": -22.728336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.471298, "energy": 22.358023, "activity_lines": [ 0.0775, 0.077545, 0.078405, 0.080366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 464, "typical_volume": 18751.45, "trend": 0.084167, "fair_value": 0.170802, "relative_strength": -22.695155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.237123, "energy": 18.161988, "activity_lines": [ 0.0775, 0.0775, 0.07825, 0.079876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 18634.95, "trend": 0.08325, "fair_value": 0.170242, "relative_strength": -22.029632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.068628, "energy": 18.00263, "activity_lines": [ 0.0775, 0.0775, 0.078107, 0.079446 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }