{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4f20541-a26f-4a86-965a-311b719d9d47", "symbol": "TNZ", "name": "Tenaz Energy Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.621, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.192, "architecture_energy": 28.359, "architecture_maturity": 52.084, "architecture_confidence": 61.912, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.82, "rotation_up": 59.19, "upward_expansion": 54.83, "deceleration": 61.78, "rotation_down": 9.64, "downward_expansion": 23.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.456667, 52.250546, 53.365714, 53.934473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 54.18, "trend_reference": 52.17, "distance_from_trend": 0.038528, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.352372, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.799657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.917586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.322754, "excess_performance": 0.202333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038528, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.199954, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.799657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.095177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.219176, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.484412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.322754, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.982316, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 540400, "relative_activity": 0.614077, "balance": 0.982316, "dry_up": 0.954779, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083312, "annualized_volatility": 0.51972, "from_high_reference": -0.215919, "from_low_reference": 1.916039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.17, "fair_value_reference": 19.352372, "structural_low": 39.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.123041, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.108518, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.461291, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.180203, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.14561, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.334173, "worst_return": -0.065617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.45188, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.372334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.151531, "worst_return": -0.08399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.78, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.652697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.631579, "worst_return": -0.430769, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117794, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.201653, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173721, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017464, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.342442, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176742, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.754433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081228, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.08, "volume": 757500, "typical_volume": 418900.0, "trend": 2.554, "fair_value": 2.170833, "relative_strength": 39.948918, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 46.98, "volume": 1019000, "typical_volume": 1022965.0, "trend": 48.266333, "fair_value": 18.037949, "relative_strength": 15.117859, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.235538, "energy": 52.30442, "activity_lines": [ 47.586001, 49.599455, 53.779286, 52.618344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.279999, "volume": 1099800, "typical_volume": 1044925.0, "trend": 49.256667, "fair_value": 18.357179, "relative_strength": 28.962356, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.612709, "energy": 30.785207, "activity_lines": [ 49.228667, 49.854364, 53.561857, 52.941806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.830002, "volume": 1157100, "typical_volume": 1045210.0, "trend": 50.298667, "fair_value": 18.691731, "relative_strength": 32.822367, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.774457, "energy": 15.159301, "activity_lines": [ 51.526001, 50.683637, 53.557, 53.365893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.23, "volume": 563600, "typical_volume": 969390.0, "trend": 51.298333, "fair_value": 19.02891, "relative_strength": 32.379357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.153286, "energy": 23.25974, "activity_lines": [ 53.667334, 51.642728, 53.560476, 53.748559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.18, "volume": 540400, "typical_volume": 880020.0, "trend": 52.17, "fair_value": 19.352372, "relative_strength": 21.917586, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.192485, "energy": 28.359386, "activity_lines": [ 54.456667, 52.250546, 53.365714, 53.934473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }