{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4f35055-6239-42b3-93d2-4d2350d04347", "symbol": "HLLY", "name": "Holley Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 88.252, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.528, "architecture_energy": 14.059, "architecture_maturity": 86.239, "architecture_confidence": 49.946, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.61, "rotation_up": 36.84, "upward_expansion": 20.18, "deceleration": 44.06, "rotation_down": 15.8, "downward_expansion": 54.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.808, 2.678182, 2.698048, 2.841097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.17, "trend_reference": 3.121667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.439103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078248, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.119009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.257611, "excess_performance": -0.383236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078248, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139964, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257611, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.136084, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5336571, "relative_activity": 1.335096, "balance": 1.136084, "dry_up": 1.045548, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098398, "annualized_volatility": 0.541336, "from_high_reference": -0.292411, "from_low_reference": 0.360515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.121667, "fair_value_reference": 3.439103, "structural_low": 2.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.058091, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.039377, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.167401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13871, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.177958, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.483092, "worst_return": -0.220874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.194175, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.281936, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.273859, "worst_return": -0.274096, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 4120993.6, "trend": 3.198, "fair_value": 3.491538, "relative_strength": -27.883137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.307554, "energy": 34.032902, "activity_lines": [ 2.561333, 2.547273, 2.670143, 2.873806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.67, "volume": 3031391, "typical_volume": 4032273.5, "trend": 3.149, "fair_value": 3.469423, "relative_strength": -27.121925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.614793, "energy": 24.994422, "activity_lines": [ 2.606, 2.568727, 2.659476, 2.839742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.17, "volume": 5336571, "typical_volume": 3997145.3, "trend": 3.121667, "fair_value": 3.439103, "relative_strength": -16.119009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.528486, "energy": 14.059196, "activity_lines": [ 2.808, 2.678182, 2.698048, 2.841097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }