{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4f67f5f-2b6a-439a-a12f-95ce4656dadb", "symbol": "AESR", "name": "Anfield U.S. Equity Sector Rotation ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.259, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.928, "architecture_energy": 22.575, "architecture_maturity": 63.918, "architecture_confidence": 80.357, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.43, "rotation_up": 28.68, "upward_expansion": 57.7, "deceleration": 88.14, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 19.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.806267, 19.919807, 19.788691, 19.306061 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.19, "trend_reference": 18.70821, "distance_from_trend": 0.079205, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.563465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.386346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.146632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150427, "excess_performance": 0.024802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079205, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.386346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011466, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043234, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150427, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.157266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 217923, "relative_activity": 0.664656, "balance": 0.157266, "dry_up": 0.520504, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041112, "annualized_volatility": 0.187433, "from_high_reference": -0.032583, "from_low_reference": 0.288835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.70821, "fair_value_reference": 14.563465, "structural_low": 16.09, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000773, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.060408, "worst_return": -0.074154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062401, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00016, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.126974, "worst_return": -0.085267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.141118, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208944, "worst_return": 0.037901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08648, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119772, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": 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"close": 19.55, "volume": 135707, "typical_volume": 322833.85, "trend": 18.54011, "fair_value": 14.441944, "relative_strength": 2.651953, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.10476, "energy": 27.695346, "activity_lines": [ 19.8192, 19.978705, 19.65126, 19.143953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.48, "volume": 182351, "typical_volume": 325100.2, "trend": 18.61721, "fair_value": 14.50015, "relative_strength": 1.09808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.195264, "energy": 19.981475, "activity_lines": [ 19.673733, 19.881984, 19.692214, 19.204591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.19, "volume": 217923, "typical_volume": 327873.35, "trend": 18.70821, "fair_value": 14.563465, "relative_strength": 1.146632, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.928273, "energy": 22.574879, "activity_lines": [ 19.806267, 19.919807, 19.788691, 19.306061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }