{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4f694d9-d672-40e8-8b5d-2d5ef6d9dbfe", "symbol": "AMC", "name": "Arizona Metals Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.482, "architecture_energy": 88.585, "architecture_maturity": 89.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.817, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 59.47, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.144667, 0.150545, 0.194333, 0.27371 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.391833, "distance_from_trend": -0.591663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.406763, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.886264, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -72.811501, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.751938, "excess_performance": -0.872359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.591663, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.886264, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002135, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.728115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.751938, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 493400, "relative_activity": 0.336583, "balance": 0.711231, "dry_up": 0.663206, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148077, "annualized_volatility": 1.301411, "from_high_reference": -0.809524, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.391833, "fair_value_reference": 1.406763, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.019912, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.033364, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.313333, "worst_return": -0.669643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.144993, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.15268, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.438202, "worst_return": -0.669811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.176136, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.245833, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.004963, "worst_return": -0.468966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094675, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.214765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.304965, 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1.477692, "relative_strength": -75.081526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.763492, "energy": 68.024696, "activity_lines": [ 0.162, 0.172364, 0.262262, 0.351269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.14, "volume": 748300, "typical_volume": 1524030.0, "trend": 0.452667, "fair_value": 1.459808, "relative_strength": -77.444636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.982927, "energy": 68.672938, "activity_lines": [ 0.153667, 0.165364, 0.241738, 0.329978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 1842700, "typical_volume": 1559865.0, "trend": 0.432667, "fair_value": 1.44141, "relative_strength": -78.495105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.297355, "energy": 68.483129, "activity_lines": [ 0.144333, 0.157364, 0.222738, 0.309161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.135, "volume": 804400, "typical_volume": 1532185.0, "trend": 0.411833, "fair_value": 1.423942, "relative_strength": -76.947183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.451837, "energy": 90.169341, "activity_lines": [ 0.139333, 0.151273, 0.206405, 0.289957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 493400, "typical_volume": 1465910.0, "trend": 0.391833, "fair_value": 1.406763, "relative_strength": -72.811501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.482375, "energy": 88.584672, "activity_lines": [ 0.144667, 0.150545, 0.194333, 0.27371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }