{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5058803-33ce-4fee-9302-0592456b1a1c", "symbol": "NCLO", "name": "NUVEEN AA-BBB CLO ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.959, "architecture_energy": 33.458, "architecture_maturity": 21.163, "architecture_confidence": 61.891, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.35, "rotation_up": 48.14, "upward_expansion": 74.35, "deceleration": 62.46, "rotation_down": 19.92, "downward_expansion": 3.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.954752, 24.925361, 24.876587, 24.803701 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.005, "trend_reference": 24.715651, "distance_from_trend": 0.011707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.048903, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039756, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.126865, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016851, "excess_performance": -0.108774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039756, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0044, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0012, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 18.310729, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121577, "relative_activity": 0.637223, "balance": 18.310729, "dry_up": 1.037919, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009833, "annualized_volatility": 0.037209, "from_high_reference": -0.009336, "from_low_reference": 0.049933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.715651, "fair_value_reference": 24.048903, "structural_low": 23.897506, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.001485, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003135, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.001485, "worst_return": -0.001485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.905602, "energy": 34.182322, "activity_lines": [ 24.884907, 24.868994, 24.800881, 24.734558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.882351, "volume": 112953, "typical_volume": 188501.55, "trend": 24.668042, "fair_value": 24.016196, "relative_strength": -6.68131, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.773014, "energy": 30.264725, "activity_lines": [ 24.882929, 24.875626, 24.817567, 24.749301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.902257, "volume": 467011, "typical_volume": 197007.8, "trend": 24.682754, "fair_value": 24.02662, "relative_strength": -5.848839, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.290323, "energy": 27.106888, "activity_lines": [ 24.886609, 24.883423, 24.834898, 24.764412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.986857, "volume": 90565, "typical_volume": 190906.0, "trend": 24.700123, "fair_value": 24.037785, "relative_strength": -6.285103, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.922057, "energy": 30.902251, "activity_lines": [ 24.919628, 24.904326, 24.856424, 24.784031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.005, "volume": 121577, "typical_volume": 190791.8, "trend": 24.715651, "fair_value": 24.048903, "relative_strength": -9.126865, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.959143, "energy": 33.457961, "activity_lines": [ 24.954752, 24.925361, 24.876587, 24.803701 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }