{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e50eba96-a608-4eef-96e0-dfd6895fe498", "symbol": "MTF-F23", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) S&P 500", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.785, "architecture_energy": 63.028, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.561, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.34, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.058667, 97.976727, 2479.433429, 4176.673806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 100.3, "trend_reference": 6127.057667, "distance_from_trend": -0.98363, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8143.389295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.824941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989097, "excess_performance": -1.017997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98363, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337716, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.071987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988249, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.742253, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989097, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.424396, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187485, "relative_activity": 0.931329, "balance": 1.424396, "dry_up": 1.399382, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.350886, "annualized_volatility": 6.343582, "from_high_reference": -0.989644, "from_low_reference": 0.076065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6127.057667, "fair_value_reference": 8143.389295, "structural_low": 93.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.020861, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.017217, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.049541, "worst_return": -0.047748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020751, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.032835, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.065521, "worst_return": -0.093926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.093061, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119271, "worst_return": -0.034559, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": -63.229347, "energy": 66.913785, "activity_lines": [ 98.325333, 262.075455, 2949.945, 4585.582258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.3, "volume": 187485, "typical_volume": 201309.15, "trend": 6127.057667, "fair_value": 8143.389295, "relative_strength": -98.824941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.785265, "energy": 63.02797, "activity_lines": [ 99.058667, 97.976727, 2479.433429, 4176.673806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }