{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e50fa2d4-6fd5-4638-805f-1f48d4f784f6", "symbol": "NION", "name": "NIO Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.946, "architecture_energy": 49.624, "architecture_maturity": 27.364, "architecture_confidence": 92.993, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.54, "rotation_up": 21.55, "upward_expansion": 7.73, "deceleration": 48.04, "rotation_down": 55.74, "downward_expansion": 81.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.259332, 83.386727, 89.410952, 92.011698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 80.879997, "trend_reference": 92.668666, "distance_from_trend": -0.127213, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 100.425833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.886415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073752, "excess_performance": -0.019085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046537, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19463, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.974528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64911, "relative_activity": 1.153656, "balance": 0.974528, "dry_up": 0.748274, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092454, "annualized_volatility": 0.546741, "from_high_reference": -0.449796, "from_low_reference": 0.06421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.668666, "fair_value_reference": 100.425833, "structural_low": 78.419998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.067654, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.055118, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.076741, "worst_return": -0.084928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.088081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.163718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07597, "worst_return": -0.252132, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.283928, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.391728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.03793, "worst_return": -0.529926, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }