{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e5248bf3-da39-4503-bef0-94b9ed6d362b",
    "symbol": "QQ",
    "name": "QinetiQ Group plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 41.48,
    "architecture_energy": 50.525,
    "architecture_maturity": 32.878,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.733,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.37,
        "rotation_up": 69.16,
        "upward_expansion": 49.85,
        "deceleration": 21.04,
        "rotation_down": 17.29,
        "downward_expansion": 24.85
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        506.469593,
        481.636031,
        469.907741,
        470.948536
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 553.5,
    "trend_reference": 476.756813,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.160969,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 426.910911,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296523,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 7.543961,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.168708,
    "excess_performance": 0.117472,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.160969,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020487,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.296523,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.28596,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07544,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.253015,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.168708,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.976137,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 12826728,
      "relative_activity": 1.591978,
      "balance": 1.976137,
      "dry_up": 1.236317,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.08102,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.470121,
      "from_high_reference": -0.029475,
      "from_low_reference": 0.398473
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 476.756813,
      "fair_value_reference": 426.910911,
      "structural_low": 395.7889,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": 0.014303,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000163,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.240519,
        "worst_return": -0.159367,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.026954,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005929,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.330154,
        "worst_return": -0.181653,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.005005,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.074489,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.419089,
        "worst_return": -0.163356,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.215867,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.040244,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.352495,
        "worst_return": -0.060681,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.001907,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.235798,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.085377,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011405,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "return": 0.233329,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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      {
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": true
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    ],
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 7720208.3,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 489.8,
        "volume": 6752668,
        "typical_volume": 7754771.85,
        "trend": 472.935907,
        "fair_value": 424.204573,
        "relative_strength": -3.781739,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -3.159814,
        "energy": 7.241701,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 506.0,
        "volume": 14147459,
        "typical_volume": 8033420.3,
        "trend": 474.990146,
        "fair_value": 425.369617,
        "relative_strength": -1.504611,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.93732,
        "energy": 20.876165,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 553.5,
        "volume": 12826728,
        "typical_volume": 8057103.75,
        "trend": 476.756813,
        "fair_value": 426.910911,
        "relative_strength": 7.543961,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 41.479734,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}