{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5249be4-e3b0-4906-8d2b-bcb784ebb9a0", "symbol": "ACD", "name": "Accord Financial Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.422, "architecture_energy": 59.118, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.925, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.0, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 64.33, "rotation_down": 46.5, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.628667, 0.610182, 0.766381, 0.974882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.65, "trend_reference": 1.245667, "distance_from_trend": -0.478191, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.481731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.813311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.833778, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.654255, "excess_performance": -0.774677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.478191, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285195, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.813311, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.708338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15256, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.654255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.150836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3500, "relative_activity": 0.129486, "balance": 0.150836, "dry_up": 0.426378, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160947, "annualized_volatility": 1.048036, "from_high_reference": -0.831606, "from_low_reference": 0.181818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.245667, "fair_value_reference": 3.481731, "structural_low": 0.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.007639, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.019408, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.254545, "worst_return": -0.533835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.067141, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.08643, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.045455, "worst_return": -0.338798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.124126, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.192673, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": -0.054118, "worst_return": -0.734597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.267859, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.521199, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.265734, "worst_return": -0.42973, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-11-26", "end": "2022-03-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037138, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-03-18", "end": "2022-07-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026107, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-07-29", "end": "2022-08-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-09-02", "end": "2022-09-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.173976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052964, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.117117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.12549, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044665, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.717391, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.24, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 5080.0, "trend": 6.629413, "fair_value": 7.226442, "relative_strength": -11.503162, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance 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-75.263103, "energy": 90.710055, "activity_lines": [ 0.585333, 0.724727, 1.015857, 1.21357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.59, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 27940.0, "trend": 1.382333, "fair_value": 3.629723, "relative_strength": -76.089285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.266746, "energy": 81.054957, "activity_lines": [ 0.584667, 0.668727, 0.951571, 1.159183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.59, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27265.0, "trend": 1.352, "fair_value": 3.592897, "relative_strength": -75.304173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.912623, "energy": 74.156661, "activity_lines": [ 0.586, 0.628909, 0.89319, 1.108065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.55, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 26455.0, "trend": 1.319, "fair_value": 3.555054, "relative_strength": -76.269706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.380851, "energy": 68.835996, "activity_lines": [ 0.572, 0.595273, 0.836857, 1.056323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.69, "volume": 41000, "typical_volume": 27840.0, "trend": 1.283333, "fair_value": 3.518109, "relative_strength": -69.101401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.534555, "energy": 61.44048, "activity_lines": [ 0.61, 0.601636, 0.800524, 1.015742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.65, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 27030.0, "trend": 1.245667, "fair_value": 3.481731, "relative_strength": -70.833778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.422144, "energy": 59.118105, "activity_lines": [ 0.628667, 0.610182, 0.766381, 0.974882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }