{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e52a1a0f-c19e-4278-9645-53a4c2749258", "symbol": "CVLT", "name": "CommVault Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.053, "architecture_energy": 35.382, "architecture_maturity": 84.343, "architecture_confidence": 68.886, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.67, "rotation_up": 36.71, "upward_expansion": 68.23, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.44, "downward_expansion": 18.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.711333, 137.524, 127.773286, 117.984538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 135.27, "trend_reference": 108.491667, "distance_from_trend": 0.246824, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 127.675128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059486, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.491294, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.571628, "excess_performance": 0.384174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.246824, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037503, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059486, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203972, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.304628, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.571628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.685843, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3143277, "relative_activity": 0.756459, "balance": 1.685843, "dry_up": 0.865128, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101873, "annualized_volatility": 0.485462, "from_high_reference": -0.317438, "from_low_reference": 0.885296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.491667, "fair_value_reference": 127.675128, "structural_low": 71.75, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.006968, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002276, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.231076, "worst_return": -0.126997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.019131, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066099, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.270257, "worst_return": -0.323965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.133927, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.021553, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.52248, "worst_return": -0.263466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 146.3, 140.182364, 125.124333, 115.622344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.8, "volume": 5868612, "typical_volume": 4380122.35, "trend": 108.121667, "fair_value": 127.254744, "relative_strength": -16.397119, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.584873, "energy": 48.383121, "activity_lines": [ 136.852667, 137.360909, 125.709381, 116.233032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.27, "volume": 3143277, "typical_volume": 4155252.1, "trend": 108.491667, "fair_value": 127.675128, "relative_strength": -7.491294, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.053372, "energy": 35.382044, "activity_lines": [ 134.711333, 137.524, 127.773286, 117.984538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }