{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e52b46c2-4874-4063-9804-b3aa6606800e", "symbol": "300291", "name": "Beijing Baination Pictures Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.683, "architecture_energy": 40.716, "architecture_maturity": 72.416, "architecture_confidence": 57.86, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.26, "rotation_up": 24.64, "upward_expansion": 17.21, "deceleration": 66.7, "rotation_down": 45.04, "downward_expansion": 67.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.000667, 4.985636, 5.420952, 5.884753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.3, "trend_reference": 6.639, "distance_from_trend": -0.201687, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.769487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081374, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.881261, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.389401, "excess_performance": -0.396801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081374, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.389401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.213861, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 223012660, "relative_activity": 1.788402, "balance": 1.213861, "dry_up": 1.696931, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137881, "annualized_volatility": 0.529061, "from_high_reference": -0.533451, "from_low_reference": 0.226852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.639, "fair_value_reference": 5.769487, "structural_low": 4.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.020089, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016892, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.654917, "worst_return": -0.315315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.12, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.092055, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.407125, "worst_return": -0.216949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.15209, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.051406, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.399554, "worst_return": -0.081739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076786, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"direction": -66.426044, "energy": 82.181089, "activity_lines": [ 4.984667, 5.361636, 5.867429, 6.361806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.77, "volume": 206637404, "typical_volume": 105606186.45, "trend": 6.783333, "fair_value": 5.805, "relative_strength": -27.558511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.989366, "energy": 73.500116, "activity_lines": [ 4.902, 5.198182, 5.719857, 6.230473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.43, "volume": 146525743, "typical_volume": 107880920.65, "trend": 6.753333, "fair_value": 5.789936, "relative_strength": -32.376029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.05532, "energy": 61.909848, "activity_lines": [ 4.738667, 5.004909, 5.55581, 6.078645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.16, "volume": 270249462, "typical_volume": 117728946.55, "trend": 6.712, "fair_value": 5.778397, "relative_strength": -19.471345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.654794, "energy": 51.625731, "activity_lines": [ 4.86, 4.976727, 5.476524, 5.975849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.3, "volume": 223012660, "typical_volume": 124699423.1, "trend": 6.639, "fair_value": 5.769487, "relative_strength": -20.881261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.682913, "energy": 40.716168, "activity_lines": [ 5.000667, 4.985636, 5.420952, 5.884753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }