{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e52fa2f1-8356-4b94-99cf-556332c81d5e", "symbol": "ONDS", "name": "Ondas Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.988, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.1, "architecture_energy": 26.023, "architecture_maturity": 26.605, "architecture_confidence": 62.819, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.45, "rotation_up": 21.91, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 60.29, "rotation_down": 44.01, "downward_expansion": 63.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.948, 7.916636, 8.7245, 9.063667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.11, "trend_reference": 9.5555, "distance_from_trend": -0.046622, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.682241, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.474037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.919446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059856, "excess_performance": -0.247309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046622, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018489, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.474037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.508493, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.728543, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 380283897, "relative_activity": 1.022372, "balance": 0.728543, "dry_up": 1.471104, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231232, "annualized_volatility": 0.940787, "from_high_reference": -0.403796, "from_low_reference": 1.846875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.5555, "fair_value_reference": 3.682241, "structural_low": 6.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.008108, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.004145, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 1.330513, "worst_return": -0.442857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.097345, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.049294, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.687515, "worst_return": -0.569378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070662, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.107549, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 6.86709, "worst_return": -0.598753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.613403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021426, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.223308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.392405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.63662, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": 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"direction": -71.319694, "energy": 71.880621, "activity_lines": [ 7.255, 8.310364, 9.061, 9.385118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.8, "volume": 834313481, "typical_volume": 383496091.25, "trend": 9.825833, "fair_value": 3.592562, "relative_strength": -16.04242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.269511, "energy": 62.954553, "activity_lines": [ 7.302, 8.074818, 8.906405, 9.252957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.49, "volume": 302658926, "typical_volume": 374656335.55, "trend": 9.708167, "fair_value": 3.631151, "relative_strength": -20.595814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.386812, "energy": 49.100097, "activity_lines": [ 7.343667, 7.834182, 8.731952, 9.102258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.11, "volume": 380283897, "typical_volume": 371962388.8, "trend": 9.5555, "fair_value": 3.682241, "relative_strength": -8.919446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.100494, "energy": 26.023123, "activity_lines": [ 7.948, 7.916636, 8.7245, 9.063667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }