{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e5374bd8-0a3a-465f-95e2-ead22b54dda9",
    "symbol": "WCOD",
    "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF USD Acc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 73.896,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.093,
    "architecture_energy": 30.687,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.29,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.413,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 42.03,
        "rotation_up": 50.58,
        "upward_expansion": 66.64,
        "deceleration": 47.83,
        "rotation_down": 19.38,
        "downward_expansion": 16.64
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        85.421999,
        84.918818,
        85.067357,
        84.483957
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 88.839996,
    "trend_reference": 84.318667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.053622,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 75.883397,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170744,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.878058,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.057619,
    "excess_performance": 0.006384,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053622,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008432,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.170744,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010534,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038781,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020695,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057619,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.964631,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 31048,
      "relative_activity": 3.809874,
      "balance": 1.964631,
      "dry_up": 1.296883,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029531,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.217034,
      "from_high_reference": -0.02234,
      "from_low_reference": 0.17358
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 84.318667,
      "fair_value_reference": 75.883397,
      "structural_low": 75.699997,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.00491,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017968,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.123052,
        "worst_return": -0.116725,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.034841,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.019394,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.123221,
        "worst_return": -0.086411,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.052962,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.107008,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.115855,
        "worst_return": -0.06837,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.030686,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.071713,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.200315,
        "worst_return": -0.261686,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050258,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.054796,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "return": 0.079104,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.04319,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.072602,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.084026,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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        "active": true
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        "fair_value": 73.796955,
        "relative_strength": -4.645085,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 10.220985,
        "energy": 27.981166,
        "activity_lines": [
          85.099334,
          82.743273,
          83.240191,
          84.086603
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 87.400002,
        "volume": 2212,
        "typical_volume": 6906.3,
        "trend": 84.991167,
        "fair_value": 73.987724,
        "relative_strength": -1.808604,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.747161,
        "energy": 38.640123,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.272334,
          83.749819,
          83.519882,
          84.248979
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 84.985001,
        "volume": 6555,
        "typical_volume": 7191.8,
        "trend": 84.999501,
        "fair_value": 74.156763,
        "relative_strength": -4.00174,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 19.430892,
        "energy": 29.401673,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.034335,
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          83.574144,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 86.724998,
        "volume": 3769,
        "typical_volume": 7367.6,
        "trend": 85.022334,
        "fair_value": 74.340481,
        "relative_strength": -4.446314,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.923435,
        "energy": 34.411351,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.196,
          85.025,
          83.811691,
          84.359904
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 88.415001,
        "volume": 4595,
        "typical_volume": 7555.35,
        "trend": 85.035667,
        "fair_value": 74.525385,
        "relative_strength": -1.942291,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.07464,
        "energy": 39.122181,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.982,
          85.971091,
          84.210024,
          84.578785
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 84.800003,
        "volume": 25280,
        "typical_volume": 8784.35,
        "trend": 84.999167,
        "fair_value": 74.680705,
        "relative_strength": -5.43231,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.810394,
        "energy": 19.893773,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.347001,
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          84.563581
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 83.985001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8757.7,
        "trend": 84.929834,
        "fair_value": 74.815833,
        "relative_strength": -7.095854,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 0.822935,
        "energy": 9.886552,
        "activity_lines": [
          85.520334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 84.514999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8694.9,
        "trend": 85.011334,
        "fair_value": 74.961635,
        "relative_strength": -5.398838,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -1.632109,
        "energy": 5.033719,
        "activity_lines": [
          85.098001,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 83.209999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8615.85,
        "trend": 84.910501,
        "fair_value": 75.087949,
        "relative_strength": -7.897711,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.076314,
        "energy": 20.549884,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.272,
          85.120819,
          84.311739,
          84.355173
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 85.230003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8606.0,
        "trend": 84.851001,
        "fair_value": 75.230641,
        "relative_strength": -6.932887,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -0.517166,
        "energy": 11.49425,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.353668,
          85.06791,
          84.471929,
          84.375786
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 85.489998,
        "volume": 42334,
        "typical_volume": 10627.3,
        "trend": 84.800667,
        "fair_value": 75.359359,
        "relative_strength": -4.846795,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 5.34303,
        "energy": 8.527819,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.734333,
          85.061273,
          84.651429,
          84.417011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 84.93,
        "volume": 6854,
        "typical_volume": 10867.55,
        "trend": 84.686334,
        "fair_value": 75.491218,
        "relative_strength": -6.18648,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 1.965376,
        "energy": 4.888527,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.882333,
          84.962091,
          84.771453,
          84.425355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 80.300003,
        "volume": 3410,
        "typical_volume": 10986.65,
        "trend": 84.407167,
        "fair_value": 75.589327,
        "relative_strength": -12.113801,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -41.214817,
        "energy": 30.998952,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.424001,
          84.066001,
          84.446763,
          84.142366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 85.220001,
        "volume": 963,
        "typical_volume": 6701.0,
        "trend": 84.358167,
        "fair_value": 75.719199,
        "relative_strength": -7.68971,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -6.46971,
        "energy": 9.231212,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.886668,
          84.149637,
          84.597882,
          84.194807
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 88.839996,
        "volume": 31048,
        "typical_volume": 8149.35,
        "trend": 84.318667,
        "fair_value": 75.883397,
        "relative_strength": -3.878058,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.092624,
        "energy": 30.687441,
        "activity_lines": [
          85.421999,
          84.918818,
          85.067357,
          84.483957
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}