{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e53955a5-334d-4621-9bc9-b38ae4ab15cd", "symbol": "PSI", "name": "Pason Systems Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.681, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.192, "architecture_energy": 23.923, "architecture_maturity": 15.939, "architecture_confidence": 76.308, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.52, "rotation_up": 25.51, "upward_expansion": 13.83, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 45.82, "downward_expansion": 41.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.646667, 12.671352, 13.064563, 13.071552 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.39, "trend_reference": 12.955769, "distance_from_trend": -0.043669, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.927598, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.137784, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016706, "excess_performance": -0.137128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043669, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025002, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.679308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1072000, "relative_activity": 1.009174, "balance": 1.679308, "dry_up": 1.490979, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056126, "annualized_volatility": 0.279567, "from_high_reference": -0.191243, "from_low_reference": 0.153668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.955769, "fair_value_reference": 12.927598, "structural_low": 12.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.009797, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.038032, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.134651, "worst_return": -0.125077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009117, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062051, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.081251, "worst_return": -0.176497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212973, "worst_return": -0.076584, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.086955, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.240028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064465, "worst_return": -0.238375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141415, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094406, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005517, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086266, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.034305, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017464, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027237, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000806, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.439387, "volume": 598700, "typical_volume": 870345.0, "trend": 11.298461, "fair_value": 9.896526, "relative_strength": 3.793599, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", 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3155600, "typical_volume": 1013660.0, "trend": 12.877889, "fair_value": 12.920176, "relative_strength": -5.704299, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.199215, "energy": 34.597226, "activity_lines": [ 12.642, 12.956853, 13.232887, 13.119526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.2, "volume": 733500, "typical_volume": 1001975.0, "trend": 12.923938, "fair_value": 12.926494, "relative_strength": -3.233379, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.066178, "energy": 16.833398, "activity_lines": [ 12.847333, 12.938438, 13.230087, 13.140308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.4, "volume": 1374100, "typical_volume": 1040645.0, "trend": 12.931772, "fair_value": 12.927857, "relative_strength": -8.438043, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.055976, "energy": 16.769554, "activity_lines": [ 12.755333, 12.787183, 13.147771, 13.106505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.39, "volume": 1072000, "typical_volume": 1062255.0, "trend": 12.955769, "fair_value": 12.927598, "relative_strength": -11.137784, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.191934, "energy": 23.923133, "activity_lines": [ 12.646667, 12.671352, 13.064563, 13.071552 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }