{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e53b64f9-8945-4684-b06f-27aafbf42f9f", "symbol": "GSK", "name": "GSK plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.975, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.9, "architecture_energy": 21.439, "architecture_maturity": 17.262, "architecture_confidence": 71.61, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.54, "rotation_up": 18.54, "upward_expansion": 10.64, "deceleration": 51.14, "rotation_down": 44.63, "downward_expansion": 67.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1938.766667, 1949.427273, 1949.340324, 1973.083762 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1960.5, "trend_reference": 1991.920097, "distance_from_trend": -0.015774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1614.784486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214094, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.188848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107902, "excess_performance": -0.159137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024556, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038571, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021888, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.784958, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28171687, "relative_activity": 0.916391, "balance": 1.784958, "dry_up": 1.348922, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058312, "annualized_volatility": 0.232773, "from_high_reference": -0.14074, "from_low_reference": 0.521804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1991.920097, "fair_value_reference": 1614.784486, "structural_low": 1690.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023631, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008386, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.108371, "worst_return": -0.116258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.00589, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.014908, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.188431, "worst_return": -0.186105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.17013, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.10888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293615, 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"Established", "return": -0.024892, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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1950.5286, 1974.949962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1960.5, "volume": 28171687, "typical_volume": 30741989.95, "trend": 1991.920097, "fair_value": 1614.784486, "relative_strength": -2.188848, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.900249, "energy": 21.439417, "activity_lines": [ 1938.766667, 1949.427273, 1949.340324, 1973.083762 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }