{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e53c5b5d-52a3-4166-a2ed-620c504db792", "symbol": "KBR", "name": "KBR Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.601, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.244, "architecture_energy": 16.191, "architecture_maturity": 7.66, "architecture_confidence": 46.294, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.33, "rotation_up": 43.52, "upward_expansion": 37.77, "deceleration": 29.42, "rotation_down": 15.9, "downward_expansion": 41.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.869333, 36.07935, 35.342047, 35.87331 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.04, "trend_reference": 37.26668, "distance_from_trend": 0.020751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.096154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.255521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.247684, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.117215, "excess_performance": -0.24284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.255521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135686, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184074, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.47926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7046089, "relative_activity": 0.826847, "balance": 1.47926, "dry_up": 1.038917, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078896, "annualized_volatility": 0.400419, "from_high_reference": -0.262122, "from_low_reference": 0.276562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.26668, "fair_value_reference": 51.096154, "structural_low": 29.798794, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.029512, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02348, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.121597, "worst_return": -0.1315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.113452, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.145108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212446, "worst_return": -0.121266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.136905, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.205727, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.454797, "worst_return": -0.245499, "sufficient": true }, 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"fair_value": 51.519696, "relative_strength": -21.665087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.798091, "energy": 14.571743, "activity_lines": [ 35.068, 34.773129, 34.798815, 35.94711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.93, "volume": 7697072, "typical_volume": 8250149.25, "trend": 37.581385, "fair_value": 51.372854, "relative_strength": -16.392973, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.359271, "energy": 11.303723, "activity_lines": [ 35.835333, 35.265696, 34.946443, 35.898804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.61, "volume": 13706359, "typical_volume": 8541255.75, "trend": 37.463777, "fair_value": 51.227852, "relative_strength": -17.341634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.493228, "energy": 11.161627, "activity_lines": [ 36.222, 35.572594, 35.076466, 35.836134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.04, "volume": 7046089, "typical_volume": 8521634.1, "trend": 37.26668, "fair_value": 51.096154, "relative_strength": -16.247684, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.243993, "energy": 16.191338, "activity_lines": [ 36.869333, 36.07935, 35.342047, 35.87331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }