{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e53d81d1-d8c9-4081-b445-d730b2790d22", "symbol": "BSL", "name": "Basler Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.695, "architecture_energy": 25.162, "architecture_maturity": 73.018, "architecture_confidence": 92.924, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.26, "rotation_up": 22.64, "upward_expansion": 56.43, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 32.06, "downward_expansion": 20.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.313333, 26.451818, 25.723482, 23.453376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.85, "trend_reference": 20.735156, "distance_from_trend": 0.15022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.677518, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.881283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.785561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.5289, "excess_performance": 0.46426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15022, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.242923, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.881283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.177856, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.427788, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.5289, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.039332, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201554, "relative_activity": 1.157613, "balance": 1.039332, "dry_up": 0.918801, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134658, "annualized_volatility": 0.744549, "from_high_reference": -0.241653, "from_low_reference": 1.096547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.735156, "fair_value_reference": 12.677518, "structural_low": 11.375846, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.056289, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.018157, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.264755, "worst_return": -0.111817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043266, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.409091, "worst_return": -0.295419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.371747, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.355186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.054545, "worst_return": -0.478499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.92686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144963, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.348913, "energy": 64.413948, "activity_lines": [ 28.405845, 27.099723, 22.938997, 20.779526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 34766, "typical_volume": 157367.9, "trend": 18.777569, "fair_value": 12.335285, "relative_strength": 49.503171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.531376, "energy": 62.898679, "activity_lines": [ 28.26, 27.565792, 23.684163, 21.389527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.9, "volume": 218447, "typical_volume": 164992.2, "trend": 19.276704, "fair_value": 12.417353, "relative_strength": 57.337925, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.408828, "energy": 60.740136, "activity_lines": [ 28.556666, 28.047344, 24.477986, 22.042587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.950001, "volume": 166749, "typical_volume": 167304.55, "trend": 19.687468, "fair_value": 12.482042, "relative_strength": 40.748054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.771936, "energy": 44.907832, "activity_lines": [ 27.7, 27.799243, 24.925054, 22.473122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 103189, "typical_volume": 167214.45, "trend": 20.094987, "fair_value": 12.553643, "relative_strength": 40.400948, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.074569, "energy": 38.245877, "activity_lines": [ 27.1, 27.626713, 25.380072, 22.915866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.0, "volume": 168404, "typical_volume": 170021.7, "trend": 20.423613, "fair_value": 12.617095, "relative_strength": 27.875853, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.772953, "energy": 27.352342, "activity_lines": [ 26.31, 27.122503, 25.631625, 23.232318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.85, "volume": 201554, "typical_volume": 174111.7, "trend": 20.735156, "fair_value": 12.677518, "relative_strength": 17.785561, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.695491, "energy": 25.161934, "activity_lines": [ 25.313333, 26.451818, 25.723482, 23.453376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }