{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e541276f-00d3-4ba0-91d5-b900121fe42c", "symbol": "XNAQ", "name": "Xtrackers NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.402, "architecture_energy": 28.734, "architecture_maturity": 68.128, "architecture_confidence": 88.512, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.04, "rotation_up": 23.98, "upward_expansion": 56.12, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 36.43, "downward_expansion": 22.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.773668, 50.372364, 50.196881, 48.742575 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 51.080002, "trend_reference": 46.900917, "distance_from_trend": 0.089105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.905512, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347561, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.726265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.204149, "excess_performance": 0.152914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.347561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037263, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.204149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.213263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350659, "relative_activity": 2.423921, "balance": 1.213263, "dry_up": 1.550599, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03639, "annualized_volatility": 0.188939, "from_high_reference": -0.129105, "from_low_reference": 0.296611 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.900917, "fair_value_reference": 37.905512, "structural_low": 40.474998, "invalidation": "A 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028954, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051797, "active": false }, { 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51.789999, 51.545181, 49.203405, 47.589957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.439999, "volume": 230969, "typical_volume": 116270.9, "trend": 46.144, "fair_value": 37.344294, "relative_strength": 8.818648, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.627244, "energy": 60.779671, "activity_lines": [ 51.681999, 51.63209, 49.617738, 47.948301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.25, "volume": 182123, "typical_volume": 120267.95, "trend": 46.32575, "fair_value": 37.482948, "relative_strength": 3.067735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.288425, "energy": 40.941311, "activity_lines": [ 50.840666, 51.243454, 49.782643, 48.148688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.275002, "volume": 130764, "typical_volume": 122989.6, "trend": 46.506583, "fair_value": 37.618973, "relative_strength": 1.72858, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.576213, "energy": 27.696771, "activity_lines": [ 50.141667, 50.863091, 49.919857, 48.338962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.360001, "volume": 233730, "typical_volume": 130800.7, "trend": 46.677417, "fair_value": 37.751345, "relative_strength": -1.400301, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.799554, "energy": 27.573251, "activity_lines": [ 49.402667, 50.345545, 49.942143, 48.458538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.080002, "volume": 350659, "typical_volume": 144666.0, "trend": 46.900917, "fair_value": 37.905512, "relative_strength": 3.726265, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.402496, "energy": 28.733788, "activity_lines": [ 49.773668, 50.372364, 50.196881, 48.742575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }