{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5436cbd-d9d4-44b9-b850-334a8792dea8", "symbol": "MXUK", "name": "Invesco MSCI Europe ex-UK UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.861, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.473, "architecture_energy": 65.982, "architecture_maturity": 48.111, "architecture_confidence": 83.325, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 59.16, "upward_expansion": 84.5, "deceleration": 59.97, "rotation_down": 26.14, "downward_expansion": 11.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.059667, 47.837273, 46.93581, 46.129495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.82, "trend_reference": 45.312, "distance_from_trend": 0.077419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.497051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.539108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096955, "excess_performance": 0.032316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077419, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040913, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067642, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035391, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023207, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096955, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.327294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 446, "relative_activity": 0.190253, "balance": 0.327294, "dry_up": 0.67399, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01931, "annualized_volatility": 0.149443, "from_high_reference": -0.002961, "from_low_reference": 0.244139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.312, "fair_value_reference": 38.497051, "structural_low": 40.275002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.012335, "positive_rate": 0.594595, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": 0.002966, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.076845, "worst_return": -0.10521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.030714, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.007329, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.08985, "worst_return": -0.057528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.064132, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.009863, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.136292, "worst_return": -0.145076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 84.71262, "activity_lines": [ 47.675, 47.068637, 45.907976, 45.346946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.505001, "volume": 666, "typical_volume": 2494.0, "trend": 44.839, "fair_value": 38.189519, "relative_strength": 7.603984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.146093, "energy": 79.640546, "activity_lines": [ 47.669667, 47.255455, 46.144953, 45.52957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.705002, "volume": 534, "typical_volume": 2296.3, "trend": 45.007667, "fair_value": 38.286122, "relative_strength": 6.608645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.114905, "energy": 69.214977, "activity_lines": [ 47.688334, 47.427728, 46.392167, 45.714473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.779999, "volume": 4674, "typical_volume": 2367.55, "trend": 45.1595, "fair_value": 38.388333, "relative_strength": 4.309845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.280677, "energy": 56.11805, "activity_lines": [ 47.72, 47.55491, 46.626286, 45.893334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.82, "volume": 446, "typical_volume": 2344.25, "trend": 45.312, "fair_value": 38.497051, "relative_strength": 3.539108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.473061, "energy": 65.982431, "activity_lines": [ 48.059667, 47.837273, 46.93581, 46.129495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }