{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5485a92-22e1-42e6-8cac-e9c16897fae0", "symbol": "JAPN", "name": "CI Japan Equity Index ETF Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.988, "architecture_energy": 55.601, "architecture_maturity": 82.325, "architecture_confidence": 74.477, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.11, "rotation_up": 52.9, "upward_expansion": 81.81, "deceleration": 68.47, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 8.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.377331, 77.10994, 75.973245, 74.755137 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 78.699997, "trend_reference": 73.228809, "distance_from_trend": 0.074714, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.619889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.495632, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.015892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088478, "excess_performance": -0.031944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074714, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.495632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007416, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040159, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.490741, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3900, "relative_activity": 0.616114, "balance": 1.490741, "dry_up": 0.860979, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021438, "annualized_volatility": 0.18703, "from_high_reference": -0.001522, "from_low_reference": 0.435152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.228809, "fair_value_reference": 52.619889, "structural_low": 67.102028, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": 0.01952, "positive_rate": 0.632653, "directional_follow_through": 0.632653, "median_excess_return": 0.014511, "regime_survival": 0.77551, "best_return": 0.097673, "worst_return": -0.162786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.049436, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.028406, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.213592, "worst_return": -0.095926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.084681, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.064603, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.234584, "worst_return": -0.007734, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.215802, "energy": 56.978105, "activity_lines": [ 76.854, 76.634572, 75.254773, 74.110797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.589996, "volume": 5600, "typical_volume": 6450.0, "trend": 72.856491, "fair_value": 52.345281, "relative_strength": 4.759974, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.53618, "energy": 48.201119, "activity_lines": [ 76.761999, 76.698487, 75.532043, 74.378136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.699997, "volume": 3900, "typical_volume": 6330.0, "trend": 73.228809, "fair_value": 52.619889, "relative_strength": 4.015892, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.988302, "energy": 55.600552, "activity_lines": [ 77.377331, 77.10994, 75.973245, 74.755137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }