{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e54c9963-0786-4e1f-abe5-9a4c41451d88",
    "symbol": "AGED",
    "name": "iShares Ageing Population UCITS ETF USD (Acc)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 84.442,
    "architecture_energy": 83.036,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.109,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.27,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 3.68,
        "rotation_up": 75.76,
        "upward_expansion": 92.48,
        "deceleration": 46.78,
        "rotation_down": 16.93,
        "downward_expansion": 16.81
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        8.737559
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 9.498,
    "trend_reference": 8.5271,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.113861,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 7.273128,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305903,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.157223,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.147933,
    "excess_performance": -0.022958,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.113861,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040546,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.305903,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.113364,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011572,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044721,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.147933,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.451719,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 152100,
      "relative_activity": 1.431472,
      "balance": 1.451719,
      "dry_up": 1.329269,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01981,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.118651,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000736,
      "from_low_reference": 0.285598
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 8.5271,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.273128,
      "structural_low": 7.748,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 28,
        "median_return": 0.011101,
        "positive_rate": 0.678571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.678571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012524,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.057107,
        "worst_return": -0.066164,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
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        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
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        "worst_return": -0.083549,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.028384,
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        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.107863,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.067635,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 7.150712,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.878944,
        "energy": 89.972681,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 108408.7,
        "trend": 8.343433,
        "fair_value": 7.171551,
        "relative_strength": -1.555118,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 93.694167,
        "energy": 96.864313,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 106379.9,
        "trend": 8.383267,
        "fair_value": 7.192154,
        "relative_strength": -1.504759,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.392673,
        "energy": 94.094751,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 142407,
        "typical_volume": 106592.3,
        "trend": 8.418167,
        "fair_value": 7.211692,
        "relative_strength": -0.088307,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.49829,
        "energy": 91.881375,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.217067,
          8.992345,
          8.704557,
          8.561219
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 9.316,
        "volume": 125663,
        "typical_volume": 106133.85,
        "trend": 8.453867,
        "fair_value": 7.231199,
        "relative_strength": 0.496672,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.147177,
        "energy": 91.023929,
        "activity_lines": [
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          9.083218,
          8.783881,
          8.619144
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.283,
        "volume": 144792,
        "typical_volume": 104960.15,
        "trend": 8.4917,
        "fair_value": 7.251244,
        "relative_strength": -0.53554,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.194775,
        "energy": 86.052287,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.2914,
          9.151564,
          8.854848,
          8.672637
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.498,
        "volume": 152100,
        "typical_volume": 106254.25,
        "trend": 8.5271,
        "fair_value": 7.273128,
        "relative_strength": -1.157223,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.441553,
        "energy": 83.035992,
        "activity_lines": [
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          9.2448,
          8.940243,
          8.737559
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}