{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e54d084f-cad8-42d3-b692-7a38b4535606", "symbol": "600051", "name": "Ningbo United Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.643, "architecture_energy": 53.062, "architecture_maturity": 68.294, "architecture_confidence": 87.405, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.89, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 9.62, "deceleration": 60.32, "rotation_down": 44.72, "downward_expansion": 78.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.888, 5.907007, 6.309469, 6.675107 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.08, "trend_reference": 7.112188, "distance_from_trend": -0.145129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.685735, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.976565, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237139, "excess_performance": -0.193935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090601, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24504, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237139, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.423765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26291100, "relative_activity": 0.997933, "balance": 0.423765, "dry_up": 1.003362, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073429, "annualized_volatility": 0.290007, "from_high_reference": -0.271856, "from_low_reference": 0.103448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.112188, "fair_value_reference": 6.685735, "structural_low": 5.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.001532, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.003035, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.160377, "worst_return": -0.073525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054308, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.04301, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.25947, "worst_return": -0.11292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.116767, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.107121, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.261364, "worst_return": -0.03702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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27259114.65, "trend": 7.218521, "fair_value": 6.700584, "relative_strength": -21.605736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.219841, "energy": 67.653217, "activity_lines": [ 5.796, 5.950364, 6.472285, 6.831841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.87, "volume": 24734600, "typical_volume": 26711329.65, "trend": 7.160854, "fair_value": 6.692856, "relative_strength": -17.098775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.010275, "energy": 60.790913, "activity_lines": [ 5.813333, 5.898494, 6.375305, 6.74484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.08, "volume": 26291100, "typical_volume": 26345563.95, "trend": 7.112188, "fair_value": 6.685735, "relative_strength": -15.976565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.643397, "energy": 53.062302, "activity_lines": [ 5.888, 5.907007, 6.309469, 6.675107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }