{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e54dcfba-86f7-436c-9ee3-10a97dff0911", "symbol": "XMH", "name": "iShares S&P U.S. Mid-Cap Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.648, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.012, "architecture_energy": 57.487, "architecture_maturity": 59.905, "architecture_confidence": 55.768, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.75, "rotation_up": 48.7, "upward_expansion": 77.48, "deceleration": 70.27, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 8.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.170666, 33.08892, 32.675675, 32.146476 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.799999, "trend_reference": 31.574199, "distance_from_trend": 0.070494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.383803, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234306, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.079588, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074039, "excess_performance": -0.046383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070494, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042927, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007094, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074039, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24200, "relative_activity": 0.819228, "balance": 0.715366, "dry_up": 1.050271, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018747, "annualized_volatility": 0.134737, "from_high_reference": -0.001182, "from_low_reference": 0.239381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.574199, "fair_value_reference": 27.383803, "structural_low": 28.620001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.010121, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.005271, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.087263, "worst_return": -0.105403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.036482, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.003474, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.065173, "worst_return": -0.115134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063571, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.029652, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116002, "worst_return": -0.165499, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.126872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.23747, "energy": 50.937675, "activity_lines": [ 32.949334, 32.906825, 32.385494, 31.901621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.799999, "volume": 26500, "typical_volume": 29790.0, "trend": 31.459866, "fair_value": 27.317737, "relative_strength": -0.983457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.156054, "energy": 40.372259, "activity_lines": [ 32.881333, 32.915102, 32.491418, 31.9955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.799999, "volume": 24200, "typical_volume": 29540.0, "trend": 31.574199, "fair_value": 27.383803, "relative_strength": -1.079588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.01247, "energy": 57.486792, "activity_lines": [ 33.170666, 33.08892, 32.675675, 32.146476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }