{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e557c64e-5532-4962-96cd-a571a116f443", "symbol": "RTH", "name": "VANECK RETAIL ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.483, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.09, "architecture_energy": 58.877, "architecture_maturity": 23.927, "architecture_confidence": 60.388, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.78, "rotation_up": 67.96, "upward_expansion": 80.86, "deceleration": 50.68, "rotation_down": 12.04, "downward_expansion": 12.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 265.91624, 262.564691, 261.931219, 261.218812 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 273.853, "trend_reference": 261.038793, "distance_from_trend": 0.049089, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 222.817525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.499279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.033781, "excess_performance": -0.153672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049089, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011605, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00992, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047221, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.971412, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23159, "relative_activity": 0.863563, "balance": 0.971412, "dry_up": 0.938802, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025818, "annualized_volatility": 0.139476, "from_high_reference": -0.002084, "from_low_reference": 0.138436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 261.038793, "fair_value_reference": 222.817525, "structural_low": 245.245, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.022975, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.007567, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.07259, "worst_return": -0.102155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06985, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.003979, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.139114, "worst_return": -0.140537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073707, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.061898, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.202855, "worst_return": -0.152266, 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259.984873, "fair_value": 221.582904, "relative_strength": -8.195025, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.056388, "energy": 23.456628, "activity_lines": [ 258.049367, 258.170515, 259.73997, 259.83334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 268.22, "volume": 32274, "typical_volume": 27864.35, "trend": 260.61331, "fair_value": 222.184272, "relative_strength": -3.968264, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.347083, "energy": 15.703114, "activity_lines": [ 261.444073, 259.896818, 260.598581, 260.364639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 273.853, "volume": 23159, "typical_volume": 26817.95, "trend": 261.038793, "fair_value": 222.817525, "relative_strength": -6.499279, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.090051, "energy": 58.87735, "activity_lines": [ 265.91624, 262.564691, 261.931219, 261.218812 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }