{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e56281bf-a078-49fd-b664-4db810b6267b", "symbol": "RUN", "name": "Sunrun Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.592, "architecture_energy": 85.288, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.479, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.84, "rotation_up": 8.27, "upward_expansion": 19.79, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 83.95, "downward_expansion": 97.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.052, 9.934727, 10.778429, 11.185454 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 8.74, "trend_reference": 12.147733, "distance_from_trend": -0.280524, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.006603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.395936, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.456603, "excess_performance": -0.63085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.280524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272067, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23969, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.483959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286876, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.456603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.096967, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.096967, "dry_up": 0.505763, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134571, "annualized_volatility": 0.793289, "from_high_reference": -0.540918, "from_low_reference": 0.0925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.147733, "fair_value_reference": 12.006603, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02669, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.099629, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.146667, "worst_return": -0.20127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089588, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.166969, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.223039, "worst_return": -0.386237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.249344, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.443227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.249344, "worst_return": -0.249344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.165111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.487628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.419324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.605812, "active": 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"trend": 13.074733, "fair_value": 12.208359, "relative_strength": -34.881802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.356946, "energy": 37.405482, "activity_lines": [ 11.36, 11.726909, 11.627333, 12.12228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.44, "volume": 1727, "typical_volume": 1840.7, "trend": 12.894667, "fair_value": 12.152013, "relative_strength": -36.537875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.244645, "energy": 53.952349, "activity_lines": [ 11.030667, 11.449818, 11.531, 11.952297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.9, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 1301.25, "trend": 12.647733, "fair_value": 12.10282, "relative_strength": -46.435502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.259755, "energy": 77.566896, "activity_lines": [ 10.241333, 10.922182, 11.294276, 11.694576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.39, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 954.3, "trend": 12.373667, "fair_value": 12.048487, "relative_strength": -49.276369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.789762, "energy": 85.983342, "activity_lines": [ 9.468667, 10.358909, 11.01441, 11.419884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.74, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 854.65, "trend": 12.147733, "fair_value": 12.006603, "relative_strength": -48.395936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.591974, "energy": 85.28848, "activity_lines": [ 9.052, 9.934727, 10.778429, 11.185454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }