{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5667667-e883-4021-b0ac-d0aa94d85963", "symbol": "SCM", "name": "Stellus Capital Investment", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.134, "architecture_energy": 54.211, "architecture_maturity": 58.576, "architecture_confidence": 81.593, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.56, "rotation_up": 15.82, "upward_expansion": 7.48, "deceleration": 52.14, "rotation_down": 68.34, "downward_expansion": 83.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.742028, 7.906836, 8.316111, 8.620685 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.41, "trend_reference": 9.253825, "distance_from_trend": -0.091187, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.78205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.381437, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.253754, "excess_performance": -0.379379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019189, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1739553, "relative_activity": 1.787735, "balance": 0.705281, "dry_up": 1.574117, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076205, "annualized_volatility": 0.397561, "from_high_reference": -0.382552, "from_low_reference": 0.245008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.253825, "fair_value_reference": 10.78205, "structural_low": 6.754975, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030553, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.027441, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.125103, "worst_return": -0.120758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043712, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.140648, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.119943, "worst_return": -0.08672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.1196, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065089, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.2133, "worst_return": -0.192862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-83.730915, "energy": 74.36023, "activity_lines": [ 8.018725, 8.274832, 8.627421, 8.994029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.932998, "volume": 1951087, "typical_volume": 1032347.9, "trend": 9.540976, "fair_value": 10.81588, "relative_strength": -39.761089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.719017, "energy": 88.768444, "activity_lines": [ 7.625181, 7.99703, 8.449592, 8.815401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.5, "volume": 1104995, "typical_volume": 980615.55, "trend": 9.387116, "fair_value": 10.795639, "relative_strength": -34.699828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.394673, "energy": 80.357739, "activity_lines": [ 7.507715, 7.856954, 8.337242, 8.683725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.41, "volume": 1739553, "typical_volume": 973048.75, "trend": 9.253825, "fair_value": 10.78205, "relative_strength": -28.381437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.1335, "energy": 54.211, "activity_lines": [ 7.742028, 7.906836, 8.316111, 8.620685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }